France will likely be okay because of their great reliance on nuclear power, but in Germany, things may not be so rosy because Angela Merkel shut down most of the nuke plants in her country. Hopefully the powers-that-be in Germany and other Euro nations are actively seeking new contracts.
But, the bottom line is that Russia’s economy is not much more than a one trick pony, with 45% of their GNP coming from energy exports. Losing that stream of income would completely devastate their economy–which isn’t in great shape to begin with.
Consumers, markets and politicians are never entirely logical but considering that Oil exports account for 42% of Russia’s total exports, their total oil export dollars declined 40% during 2019-2020 (Covid) and the US is now a Net Oil Exporter, I don’t see any advantage for them to cut off supply.
Quite the opposite, I’d expect them to prioritze getting that NordStream 2 pipeline approved to sell that hard to store natural gas and get the Sanctions on drilling technology removed to increase their production/exports and get more dollars in
But since “stupidity is the strongest force in the universe”, who knows?
Oil Exports as a % of Total Exports is dollar based.
Whether Net US Imports/Exports for a particular period were slightly positive or negative is much less important then the point that the US is internally capable of meeting domestic demand.
Oil being an International Commodity if Russia stops selling oil to the US & Europe without reducing the total amount it exports, US Refiners could switch to other producers (Mexico, Scotland, Norway, Nigeria, etc.) at minimal price disruption.
On the other hand if Russia reduces the total amount of oil exported there would be price increases which would benefit all oil producers BUT the cost of reduced oil sales would be absorbed exclusively by Russia.
During the Arab Oil Embargo Saudi Arabia which was sitting huge supplies of oil and cash could afford it but can Russia?
Drilling on Federal Lands is a Political discussion but considering the length of time from initial drilling to actual production, it’s far from a short term solution.
Additionally, considering the ongoing shift away from fossil fuels there’s a real question whether the oil companies would actually find the investment worthwhile. i.e. Would you invest millions in coal mines today knowing that future demand for coal is expected to decline?
However all that being said, in the short term the price to us the consumer of oil and oil products is often determined by other factors. Panic buying, hoarding, increased demand for back to work gasoline or WalMart’s decision to reduce their discount on motor oil, which has nothing to do with inflation.
She shut down the nukes, but they also built one of the largest green systems in the world. In 2011 20% of their energy production was from Wind and Solar. By 2020 it was over 46% and still growing.
I’m not an economist, just and auto mechanic, but I think things are going to start getting expensive really quickly. I came in to work yesterday and was told by the business owner that our labor rate is going up 18% effective immediately.
No, not really. I negotiated a pay increase and another week vacation several months ago. All the other guys are seeing the demand for techs out there and have done the same. The shop is just trying to keep up with rising labor costs. In the end it’s the customer that pays.
