Inflation is nuts for oil

Greeting cards are one of the few items that I will buy in a dollar store. I haven’t been to one for quite a while, and I’m sure that their cards are now far more than $1, but they are undoubtedly still far cheaper than elsewhere.

Just don’t buy your motor oil at a dollar store

they sell pints of antifreeze too. and frozen pretzels. and sundried tomatoes.

So what hasn’t gone up 10% or so over the last 2 years? Maybe electronics and other things that are made in China?

There are good reasons why economics is known as the “dismal science”.

+1
My undergraduate Intro to Economics class was the only class that I didn’t enjoy.
Perhaps with a different instructor it might have been more interesting, but that class was truly dismal.

The ONLY course I received an A in college was my intro to economics, not even in my major ( accounting ). I found eco interesting,probably because I’m strange.

Money is worth less because they printed so much of it.

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One final “Charge against the windmills” …

A change up or down in the price of a Product, WalMart or Costco motor oil, is Supply and Demand.

A change up or down in the price (value) of Dollars is Inflation or Deflation

And BTW, while those of us who experienced the 1970’s Post Vietnam Inflation remain concerned about a reoccurance, we should also remember that the opposite, Deflation, which occured during the 1930’s Great Depression and the more recent Great Recession 2007-2009, may be even more damaging to our economy as a whole.

Have we already forgotten the Great Recession high unemployment and the surge in College enrollment of unemployed youth?

What about supply and demand for the Dollar? If there is less demand for the dollar (for the person buying Dollars in the trade), since people have so much of it already, wouldn’t the amount that they ask for go up?

Imagine you sell a jug of oil in exchange for a bundle of firewood. You are already completely stocked with firewood and are overflowing. You’ll need to trade the wood to someone else to get rid of it. So you ask for more firewood in exchange for the oil since you have less use for it and it will be more trouble to get rid of.

You said this:

Are you saying the overall rate of inflation hasn’t changed? Even though the CPI was up 7% in 2021, more than in 40 years?

Please explain.

I do agree that price increase for a single thing, like oil, isn’t ‘inflation’.

Kind of like the difference between ‘weather’ and ‘climate’.

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The CPI Consumer Price Index, although often used as a proxy for Inflation, is actually a fairly poor guide.
It’s an artificial Market Basket of what the “Typical” person/family pays for things like housing, transportation, food, child costs etc. and it’s limitations are immediatly obvious. As just one example, housing costs are a significant part of the CPI but since I bought my home 30 years at a at a fixed rate mortgage changes in regional housing costs don’t affect me at all and the same with child costs
Of course I don’t mind a bit when my Social Security increases with the CPI but that’s just my selfishness and greed. :wink:

On the next point, Supply and Demand for the Dollar, I completely agree because this market determines it’s value. It’s the Foreign Exchange Market (ForEx) which is generally efficient, liquid, transparent and easily accessable to anyone with a computer. Want to know how the value of the Dollar stacks up against any other currency and what direction it’s going, it’s all there at a click.Of course even this isn’t a perfect measure but that goes deeper than anyone wants to go…

However getting back to the price of WalMart oil, my issue was the widespread misuse of Government induced “Inflation” as an excuse for any increase in prices.

The new Hyundai I’ve been looking at has the same MSRP as it did a year ago but because Hyundai ended their rebate and the Dealer tacked on $3,000 Dealer Mark Up the total cost is $4,000 more so is that Government Inflation or Seller Greed/Supply & Demand Opportunity?

Let’s just say that even my sweet little grandmother with only a 5th grade education would have known the answer and who get’s the “Dope Slap”. :grinning:

Inflation is not always bad. it’s runaway inflation that’s bad. Moderate inflation is a sign of a good healthy economy. But it’s not always linear. There may be peaks and valleys. We are only a couple months into a peak. This is not bad and there shouldn’t be any steps to control it. Only when there are signs of runaway inflation should the Feds step in. We’re no where close to that yet.

Those who are as old as I am might recall that, circa 1972, Nixon imposed Wage and Price Controls in order to rein-in inflation. The general public liked price controls, but they weren’t happy about wage increases being capped, thus proving that they had little understanding of the full picture when it came to inflation.

The feds imposed “ceiling prices” for staple grocery items, and those maximum prices were supposed to be posted in supermarkets. I can recall Kroger’s witty (??) approach to that requirement:
They posted the ceiling prices on the ceiling of their stores. :face_with_raised_eyebrow:

I don’t recall how long those “w & p controls” stayed in effect.

It took $1500 to buy an ounce of gold 2 years ago, and now it costs $1800. 20% increase in 2 years.

Jan 2020: It took .975 Swiss Francs to buy a Dollar.
Jan 2022: It takes .917 CHF to buy a Dollar.
6.3% more Dollars are gotten two years later.

Jan 2020: It took 1.31 Canadian to buy a Dollar.
Mar 2020: 1.41 CAD
Jan 2022: 1.25 CAD
1.31 / 1.25 = 4.8% increase in two years.

Autozone STP oil Sep 2020 to Dec 2021 = 15.8% increase in 15 months.

So the Dollar compared to other currencies which are also devaluing lost a bit over 5% in 2 years. Compared to real commodities it’s more like twice that.

Regarding TheWonderful90s, 3% annual inflation can be significant but as VDCdriver observed, is it significant enough to justify things like Govenment action or Price Control and is it even workable?
Whether it’s Inflation or Deflation, the simple truth is that some people will benefit and others won’t but if it’s generally individually manageable, what’s the rational for Government to “put it’s thumb on the marketplace scale” even if it could possibly stand up against the strength of the Marketplace?

Regarding the 16% increase in Autozone STP oil over 15 months, which is a 13% annual increase of which 3.15% may be accounted for by Inflation using the Swiss to US exchange rates so what accounts for the remaining 9.85% price increase?
Could it be more related to a recovery from the Pre-Panemic gas prices of $3/gallon when they plunged to $2/gallon than any Governmentally conrolled Inflationary issues?

My point is that we’re living in a basically Free Market Economy where generally Price is determined by Supply and Demand. Government has an important role to play, mainly assuring fair play and smoothing out the “Blips” but it can’t and shouldn’t dictate individual marketplace transactions.

So if WalMart decides to increase their price for full synthetic motor oil from $15 to $20 a jug and they can get it, God bless them. They can blame it on Inflation but thanks to the fee market I can buy an equivalent jug at Costco for $16 a jug.

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A dollar extra per quart of oil isn’t going to affect me much.

Now, a dollar extra per gallon of gas…that gets noticeable.

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Because of this thread, I bought both 0W-20 and 5W-30 Full Synthetic at Costco which is still $30 for the 2 pack of 5qt containers. Normally I buy oil when oil changes are due, but yeah it does look like significant inflation is coming in the near term.

If you think it’s bad now, wait till Russia cuts us off. I did order a box of three 5 quart containers from Rock just to get me through the year. Price was ok.

There may be an indirect effect. Most Russian oil product exports go to Europe. I think it is more likely that Europe will cut Russia off, not the inverse. It seems to me that this won’t occur until Russia attacks Ukraine and a replacement supply chain is in place. You can bet the farm that alternate supply chain negotiations are underway.

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