Say what now?
And NG is an excellent supplement to solar and wind power. When sufficient power can’t be produced by solar or wind, NG plants can be fired up to supplement the lost non-hydrocarbon sources. That can’t be done with call, it isn’t fast enough. NG plants can also be shut down quickly compared to coal.
You did not say that you were using Washington state numbers. Certainly you are correct for your state but there is not nearly that much hydroelectric generation in the rest of the US.
This seems to solve a problem for at LEAST half the pickup owners that I know: commuting and groceries, max. 30 miles a day R/T in ICE.
Many just finishing their BIG haul of the year: Christmas tree home in early December, and to the town dump after the holiday. Otherwise, groceries!
With this vehicle, if they start to “experience anxiety” they are hauling around two power plants as well as generator, just in case. Quick math shows they can get 23 days of driving without ever plugging in. But why? Wanna bet this vehicle starts at $85K and goes higher from there? And the maintenance costs!
But, they “could not live” with an plain EV…
I drove 1600 miles on the freeway for Christmas. I saw a total of three teslas on the open road plus one parked at church in town.
Now sometime over the summer, the local Culver’s installed a bank of about ten Tesla chargers. When I stopped a few weeks ago, there was one Tesla parked there and a service truck of some kind because it was a good place to park. Tonight when I stopped, there was also one Tesla getting charged up.
I will say the are really pretty all lit up at night but I wouldn’t call it a revolution.
Clearly, this differs from one part of the country to another. Just yesterday, on the main road near my house, the term Tesla Parade came to mind because the traffic coming in the other direction consisted of 4 Teslas in succession. When I go to the Costco closest to Princeton, my informal count of the Teslas in the parking lot leads me to estimate that approximately 30% of the cars are Teslas. At the Costco closer to my home, Teslas probably represent only ~10% of the vehicles parked there.
But, all of this leads me back to my earlier theory that market saturation may well have taken place by this time. Apartment dwellers and those who live in most condo developments can’t do at-home charging, so I think that further growth in EV sales in this area is going to be limited in the future.
I see Tesla’s all the time around here. There isn’t a day I’m driving on the interstate I don’t see a Tesla…and then there are many other EV’s and plug-in hybrids.
Besides the Teslas that are far too numerous to count, I usually see a few e-Mustangs and Hyundai Ioniqs each day.
Other EVs are less numerous, but the number of the extremely-pricey Rivians and Lucids seems to be slowly increasing. At this point, I have seen two Rivian SUVs and at least five Rivian pickups, and perhaps as many as six Lucid Air sedans. I have to wonder how many of those two marques are leased, due to their extremely high price.
Edited to add… In the past, I have also seen a few of Volvo’s Polestar EVs, but… none lately. When Consumer Reports recently released their reliability stats on EVs, Polestar came in dead last, so perhaps a lot of Polestars are spending more time in the dealer’s service department than in the hands of their owners. 
I’m not about to analyze it but it must be realized that there is a cultural difference between New Jersey and Nebraska for example. Whether it is heritage, money, population density or other factors, there is a reason they don’t call a coke a soda. Or sneakers for tennis shoes. I stopped at a truck stop in Ohio and noticed the soft drink refrigerators were labeled soda. So I knew I was close to a dividing line and would not find an ice cream treat we call sodas.
In Nebraska, a 100 mile trip is simply a drive to the store, instead of a weekend excursion to a ski resort. So some of that may explain happy adopters at any price versus dealer revolts at being forced to stock electric cars.
So ya gotta be careful that what is seen may not hold for overall mean, mode, or average, as it applies to a general population. But everyone is free to choose their mode at this point. Still I think 1600 miles on the road is a good sample, and same observation over 5000 miles on the road.
Yep. 1,600 or 5,000 miles travelling through a combination of red and blue states with a combination of city and rural driving is, perhaps, a decent sample. Driving through only blue or only red states, or 95% on interstates is not IMO.
I’m interested in how you justified the cost.
When the solar company visited and gave us a quote, it was approx. $25K. During their sales pitch, they calculated ROI by taking $25K and dividing it by your annual savings. So, for example, if the annual savings were $2,500, your break-even would be 10 years ($25,000/$2,500). But, that isn’t at all how you calculate the break-even point. There is an opportunity cost in tying up $25K that the salesman did not bother to work into the analysis. That money could be making you, risk-free, 5%, or $1,250 annually ($25,000 X 5%). Therefore, your break-even isn’t 10 years, it’s 20 years ($25,000/$1,250). Who invests $25K hoping they will get into the black in 20 years? And, if you finance, it gets worse. Obviously, there are no solar panels on my house.
Was your installation cost that much less and your annual savings that much more?
For me there are some choke cities that ya almost have to drive through. Going east, Indianapolis is had to avoid. Going south it’s st, Louis, Nashville, Atlanta. Alabama is a partially beautiful bypass. Ft Wayne is another bypass going east. I think I have tried most.
Off topic but before he retired, my partner had a map on the wall of Minnesota. He highlighted every road he had traveled on. There might have been a few back roads he missed but otherwise, in 30 years he had trveled every road in the state. It helps getting paid mileage.
In my case, I was lucky to… finally… finds a salesperson who was honest–unlike all of the hucksters who had made their pitch to me previously. It was by pure chance that I found a former (honor) student who was doing some solar sales while she attended graduate school.
After bringing-up aerial mapping of my home on her laptop, she pointed out that the placement/situation of my home was not optimal for solar panels, and that as a result, it would take a very long time to reach the break-even point. The number of years that she cited was longer than my probable remaining lifespan, so it was an easy decision for me to turn thumbs-down on solar panels on my roof.
Instead, I signed-up with a company that installs its solar “farms” on the roofs of warehouses and other large commercial buildings, and then they feed that power into the local utility’s grid. Their customers get a credit on their utility bill for their portion of the power that is fed into the utility’s grid. They guarantee a 21% saving on customers’ electric bills, and that has held true–at least so far. Because there is no cost to sign-up with this commercial solar farm company, I get an immediate benefit, with no “investment” on my part.
And that is why I stated…
Yes, I concur. While your findings are different from what I see here, yours is an important observation about what you see there. When folks ask me what the most important factor is in engineering & science, I always say when making critical design decisions, it is usually best to rely on experimental data rather than what a textbook says.
You’re missing a lot in your calculation. Our payback is about 7 years. Your calculations are assuming electric rates are going to be stable. They’re NOT. Our state (and many others) are already looking at increasing tax on electric utilities due to projected loss revenue from gas tax as more people move over to EV or hybrids. A conservative estimate is by the year 2040 our electric rates will DOUBLE. Long term electric rates are going up…not down.
And your calculation assumes that the money spent on the panels adds the same value to your home - something that can never be measured. Can you show me your calculation that shows payback is in 7 years? Are you taking into account the opportunity cost of tying up that money? I’m not trying to get under your skin (no need to yell at me in caps), I’m sincerely curious.
You make a lot of good points, many of which have stopped me from installing solar.
A coworker bought a system with a projected ~10 year ROI (using the companies calculations). Right before he got to the break even point, they decided to downsize into a condo. The people buying the house thought the solar was nice but did not value it the same and so they didn’t realize much increase due to having it.
Another consideration is when it’s time to replace the roof. How much does it add to have to take the panels down, remove the bracketry, replace the roofing and then re-install all of it?
I am accounting for that money. We have a great location (since I removed the about 10 trees). Our system was calculated to provide a 110% net metering. Over a one year period we’ll sell more back to the grid then use - as long as our electric needs don’t increase. During the winter months - not so much. But the summer months (even accounting for average cloudy days) will account for more than enough.
Expected electric rate increases will more then justify any money lost from investment gains. Do you watch your electric rates? It’s rare it ever goes down. We built our house in the late 90’s. Our electric rates have DOUBLED since then. And is expected to rise even sharper the next 20 years.
Check with your home insurance provider before installing solar. Policies have been dropped in some areas. Not up on the latest reasoning though.
Good point, I wonder why? One thought, the guy I mentioned was almost clobbered a few times by huge amounts of snow sliding off the panels while he was out shoveling the walk.
A definite possibility, based on my observations of the solar panels attached to most of the utility poles in my area. Once the snow accumulation reaches a few inches, almost all of it slides off.
