163 known cases and 3 deaths. Again, those are known cases, there may be up to 10 times as many unknown. Plus, you get that viruses spread exponentially, right? Ten cases become 100, become 1,000, etc. With a fivefold increase each week, 163 cases become 100,000 in less than a month, and again that’s based on known cases. Two months ago there was one known case in the whole country, today there are 66,000. Do you think that’s the end?
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That’s the 41 day pond theory but that is not reality of what happens. People take effective actions to mitigate the spread. But effective actions. They need to be focused for the greatest results. You don’t do things like the NY Health Commissioner did to encourage everyone to go to the Chinese parade/celebration whatever it was, it was stupid and she should be fired. Look at the Hollywood Chinese financing and the daily flights from China to Italy to start to understand how these became hot spots. 10 counties in the country have 50% of the cases. Two counties in Minnesota have 50% of the cases and you can drill down even more. So focus focus efforts.
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FWIW, the Harvard model gave a maximum of 1.6 million, 57% of the population. I suspect the lower figure takes preventive measures into account.
Yeah I know, cars cars cars, but we can’t go anywhere. I just thought it was funny but I was listening to a Chicago radio station last night and they had an ad for Benjamin Franklin plumbing. I think they are all over now. At any rate they advertised that with every service call they would bring a roll of toilet paper. Hey, what can a service call cost if you are desperate.
I gotta go to church now. It’s on Youtube because we can mingle. See ya.
Good Grief!
Please tell where that is and which beach.
That could be fake news like much of the news is. Or it could be that local authorities aren’t closing parking or doing anything to mitigate crowded conditions (people within a safe “social distance” from one another.
That doesn’t look like our beaches on Anna Maria Island where I am in Florida!. You could practically fire a cannon down the beaches here and not hit anybody here. Our local measures to unpopulated the beaches has worked.
This is the kind of thing that creates fear, causes anxiety and more hysteria, irrational thinking, and starts arguments, just what is not needed. Ammo sales are already quite brisk.
Anyhow, I’ve got a 7:30 tee time and then off to the beach! Good day!
P.S. Oh, and I’m pulling for you. Try and get some sleep, eat well, exercise, and relax if possible. This shall all pass. 
CSA
Clearwater. As for “fake news,” you guys really need to stop assuming anything that you don’t like or that challenges your world view is fake. At the bottom of the article you linked to, which I assume you trust as not fake news since, you know, you linked to it, is a link to this one by the same source:
The point being that some people are being responsible and trying to slow the spread of this thing, and others are not. And it’s not just you guys - up here the same thing’s happening. A lot of us are under work-from-home orders and that’s where we’re staying because it’s the responsible thing to do. But drive past any Walmart or Target or any other big box store, and the parking lot is jam packed, and people who go inside report significant crowds.
Yes, this outbreak sucks, and dealing with it sucks, and sitting at home all the time sucks - hell, it sucks for me because I had a cruise out of Canaveral coming up next month and that’s cancelled. But it’s something we need to deal with nonetheless, and pretending that it’s fake news when it gets out that some people are screwing it up for the rest of us by not doing what they need to do is not helpful.
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I wonder what you and CSA think about the powers-that-be–in FL–who allowed thousands of people to exit from a cruise ship docked in Miami–without being screened.
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It’s true that boaters were not distancing themselves enough. So, what did the local government do? They closed all the boat launch ramps. When something isn’t working it can be readdressed and corrective measures can be taken.
The beaches thing and our community pool and our golf course modifications are working just fine.
Here’s another “for instance” for your reading pleasure. Our small condo community tennis and pickleball courts were open until yesterday when a group of individuals (probably about 4 or 5 people, guests from another association) were seen sitting at a table and sun umbrella which they brought. They were waiting for court time, but were not practicing good “social distancing.” My wife is on the board of directors of our association and she saw this and she and the other board members closed the courts, padlocked the gate and posted signs.
So, I will just say that people will be people. The people in our little condo community are pretty independent and are usually very cooperative. However, should a stay at home order be given, I can assure you that people here will still group together, go outdoors for exercise, and continue getting sunshine and enjoying life.
Anybody in fear of the virus or anybody vulnerable to its consequences is free to lock themselves inside. Even then, supplies and food will have to be obtained and with it a risk of virus.
Common sense tells me to do what can be done to stop the spread of the virus, but within reason and common sense. Many people are over-reacting, in my humble opinion.
Having millions lose jobs and become desperate will lead to crime, suicides, homelessness, etcetera, which could become worse than people being sickened by the virus.
Jason Garris saw his hours drop to an on-call situation, before the restaurant he’s worked at for 14 years suddenly closed.
“The feeling that you can’t provide for the people you love is heartbreaking,” Garris said in a phone interview with the Bradenton Herald.
As the President of the United States has wisely said, “The cure cannot be worse than the problem.”
I think many folks need to take a deep breath and try and relax a bit. They don’t call me common sense, for no reason.
CSA
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I guess I have no great opinion on it but haven’t read the whole article. If they had a bunch of ill people, then some type of screening should be done. So far Minnesota has tested 5000 (oops, 12,000 now). So it’s a slow process even with the Mayo Clinic. So testing 3800 on a ship may not be practical. The other thing to consider is that every day planes are landing with people getting off that are not being tested. We have to rely on people that are ill to seek help and go from there. The local case I know of was from a trip over the pond and everyone on that trip has self-quarantined. It’s unclear where he picked it up but probably before he got on the plane.
At first glance, it seems stupid, but I have always thought cruises were stupid. I have never been on one and will never go on one. Cruise ships are famous for sickening people and I’m much too active and on too much of a vegetarian special diet to want to be trapped in a tin can on the waves. People I know that enjoy cruises believe that exercise and proper diet on cruises involves bending the elbow to drink alcohol and pigging-out on food. I’m certain the cruise ship industry will take a well deserved hit from this virus.
I haven’t heard any of the “open borders” advocates, many were running for president, popping up to do their thing, lately. I believe it’s our loose borders that have probably contributed quite a bit to our current mess. I believe it is an eye opener for many and that the border rules will be changing, finally.
That makes me more optimistic!
CSA
Spain and Italy are two of the hardest-hit areas. Colder areas?
We gotta start to steer this back to cars pretty quick. Just got the lawn mower all waxed and tuned up and drove to the hardware store, so that’s close.
Interesting though that some of the experts are now saying yeah, Summer will kill it, but come fall, it will be back with a vengeance and combined with seasonal flu. Then they are concerned about the countries that will soon be in Winter that have shown little or no cases so far. So it seems the panic is producing the results intended and will be milked for all it is worth. Too bad the feds didn’t restock after H1N1 though. That would have helped.
Good call, @bing, re: cars. Thanks.
@bing. I got a start on the same thing you did this morning. Mrs. Triedaq called me to the window and pointed out that our neighbor was mowing his yard and I needed to think about getting our mower ready for spring. The whole thought depressed me, so I fixed myself a stiff one. After thinking it over as I imbibed, I remembered going through the same thing 12 years ago. At Mrs. Triedaq’s insistence, I went to my local Rural King for mower parts. A rescue organization had three puppies for adoption. We had lost our dog to kidney failure three months earlier. I came home with s puppy instead of mower parts. I proceeded to Rural King today hoping that a rescue organization would be there and I could find s companion for my now twelve year old dog. Unfortunately, there was no rescue organization there, so I had to buy the spark plug, motor oll and air filter for the mower.
On the bright side, we finally got some warmer weather here in Indiana. I was able to grill outside for the past two days. We’ve been able to do our three mile fitness walk outdoors. We had been going to the basketball arena and walking the concourse, but the arena has been closed due to the virus. (I really don’t like the fitness walking any more than I like mowing, but Geritol ® is not covered by our health care plan, even though it was recommended by Lawrence Welk).
I did catch a lucky break. I just finished spreading fertilizer on the yard and now its raining. It’s always refreshing to see the yard green up.
To keep this automotive, it was just announced that the Indianapolis 500 race has been postponed to August.
… and Iran, which was very badly-hit with the outbreak, is quite warm–except in their mountainous areas. So much for the theory that warm weather will put an end to it…
Speaking of cars, driving, getting out and breathing fresh air and exercising, and optimism…
Have you seen that guy, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the head of Corona Virus Task Force, seen with President Trump on television?
He is almost always working and does not have any time for exercising and getting outside. He only has time to drive his car everywhere to save precious time, but…
Because of the stress he’s under, he gets out anyhow. Check out this guy. He’s incredible and incredibly optimistic, too! Awesome man.
So, in between driving and working on your car, take a break and [Ooo,] have another hit of fresh air! Enjoy!
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=have+another+hit+of+fresh+air&view=detail&mid=C928DA666DEE6CF50E9BC928DA666DEE6CF50E9B&FORM=VIRE0&ru=%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Dhave%2Banother%2Bhit%2Bof%2Bfresh%2Bair%26form%3DEDGEAR%26qs%3DPF%26cvid%3D14957839ac6442529cf2f80813aab8c2%26cc%3DUS%26setlang%3Den-US%26plvar%3D0%26PC%3DLCTS
CSA
Funny it’s been summer in Australia this whole time and it didn’t stop the spread there.
Yup!
So much for the… theory… that warm weather will stop the spread of the outbreak.
What about Louisiana? They have the highest rate of increase in the USA this week.