AI won’t be able to take every job on this planet , many jobs require skills that only a person can master like Mechanic
We all have a specific mechanic to whom we’ll get our automobiles serviced because we trust him so its a special skill and if AI could improve but it can’t master.
Also how AI can service my bike? how is it gonna remove oil caps and how is it gonna empty and replace the Air filter , also how it’ll know exactly if my air filter needs to be removed or just cleaned.
So no not for the 25-50 years AI isn’t gonna replace mechanics.
The performance potential for humans varies widely. Robots built identically with access to the same information/learning will produce the same results across their entire population. No need to see the one guy that has special skills…
You seem to ignore the reality that products will be designed to be serviced by machines in the future. It won’t be like it is today. There will be far more subassembly replacement type of repairs and less need to rebuild something. It’s already going that way with people doing the repairs. Fewer and fewer “component level” repairs.
On this part we agree. In my entire life, people have been projecting advancements at a much faster pace than reality affords. Still waiting on my Jetson car. At any rate, what we will see in that time is Expert systems and AI aiding in these kind of activities. Perhaps leveling the playing field where anyone can be that expert since the machine is instructing you how to do it properly and efficiently…
With the push to electrify every automobile, the need to service ICE vehicles over the next couple of decades will diminish to about the same number of mechanics needed to service steam engines and ferries to shoe horses…
As I stated earlier and others have agreed, vehicles are becoming more and more sub-assemble replaceable component oriented, and if that continues, the electric drive trains will probably be manufactured with quick release, easy access, removal in mind.
There is usually that proverbial brick wall that ruins predictions for the future. Our local k through 12 school system is reporting only 30-40% proficiency in reading and math skills at grade level. As systems become more complex, the question is where these folks will fit in to the job market. Maybe AI will help or maybe will just result in a whole group not being able to participate. Some have been ringing alarm bells about the capacity of the future labor supply. Our local is faced with reduced funding and enrollment but are licking their lips hoping to be bailed out by increased immigration. Ya that’ll help.
Then I read Hyundai is developing a flying car for the future. What can go wrong?
One thing that seems to have happened from grade school mathematics through college mathematics is that the word problems in textbooks has decreased and students aren’t having to solve these problems. I think word problems are important. The student has to translate language to mathematical symbols, manipulate the symbols and then translate back to language. This improves reading and mathematics skills.
I had a calculus professor who was a retired Naval Officer who spent his entire career in Nuclear Submarines… The bane of his class was the “Word Problem” and he also said “Life is a Word Problem”
His class was an evening class and he had no problem with us bringing in snacks and drinks. Most of us brought in cups of coffee from the snack bar. One of his favorite tasks to emphasize how life is word problem was to draw three cups on the board and then asked each student which size of coffee they preferred. After he asked, there would be X small cups, Y medium cups, and Z large cups chosen. He then gave us the problem…
What is the least number of trips one person requires to bring all the cups from the bar to the classroom. You can stack two small on top of each other, or you can stack one small on top of a medium that is stacked on top of either a small, a medium, or a large and finally you can carry two large, but you cannot stack anything on top of a large cup…
So what it the least number of trips required to bring all the cops to class? He asked this of every class, but you could not cheat by getting the answer from a previous class or figure it out ahead of time since you would not know how many of each size cup was chosen…
If I had the same data today, I would not remember how to solve it… So, “Life may be a Word Problem,” but “Life is also a Ditch…” (Opps, did I confuse the “D” for the “B” again?).
This doesn’t match my experience in the schools here. I’m looking at my son’s 7th grade accelerated math text book. Conservatively, at least 90% of it is word problems. The ‘check your understanding’ sections are nothing but word based problems.
There is an issue that arises in word based versus strictly algorithmic problems- they are prone to misinterpretation. Poorly worded questions with a certain amount of ambiguity sometimes lead to answers that do not match the author expectations. Of course, the instructors just shrug and say, I have to go by the book but they also realize there may be another answer based on interpretation of the question.
I may have posted this here before but I still find this funny (and a sad testimony)- True story. Overheard two teenage girls in a department store: This is 90% off! How much is that? I don’t know but 50% is half and this is way more than that…
+1. Robots are indeed good for certain applications. Dangerous work like road construction, especially tunnels, and certain jobs (like welding) for vehicle manufacturing, the robot cameras that fly around above the field to make sports game viewing more interesting, all good applications for robots. Repairing vehicles, not so much.
Going back to my old joke about knowing what to do being worth 10 times doing it, AI’s going to do that better and cheaper. How much would you have to pay @TwinTurbo to diagnose your heater? Wrenching is the cheaper part, and the economic response is to do less of it, replace modules more. I do my own (just took apart a $14 computer power supply, etc.), but if I ran a shop, I’d just throw it away.
In the end, you pay a good diagnostician less even though they may charge more per hour. That is because they do an actual diagnosis, know where to look first and can use advanced equipment to find the root cause in the least amount of time.
As I said before, when I quit smoking once I took my seats out for a thorough carpet shampooing. Then wouldn’t start and had it towed. The shop found a mystery missing fuse. When I said I was embarrassed I couldn’t find it myself they said don’t be, it took their best technician two hours to find it.