Self driving cars by 2021?


#1

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/intel-partnering-bmw-because-driving-181614132.html . . Hmm me thinks itll be later than 2021. And after reading up on the tesla accident I just don’t think we are ready for self driving cars yet.


#2

As I’ve said in other posts, full self-driving cars are, by Scientific American mag, at least 60 years in the future. Partial automation like the Tesla will not work, as was shown in that accident. You cannot depend on the human operator to keep his/her full attention on the road ready to take control if the automation fails. That just won’t work for obvious reasons.


#3

2021?? Not likely. 60 years?? I think long before that. Software and hardware advancements advance far faster then that. 20 years max.


#4

Mike, you would need full AI (Artificial Intelligence) for that job. And any AI would require very careful design and use, due to the ever present “Terminator” scenario.

Plus, to veer into the strange, would an AI require pay? 8 hour days? weekends off?


#5
Mike, you would need full AI (Artificial Intelligence) for that job.

No you don’t. Sorry Bill…but this is my field (Computer Science). Full AI means awareness. The system does NOT have to be aware to navigate through our traffic system. The current cars being tested are about 90% of the way there. It’s the edge cases that are giving them problems. The cars have already driven several hundred miles from one parking lot to another (parking itself) through heavy traffic without out incident.


#6

Sure hope there is an update available for the beta version. Will there be more accidents, probably, will there be more improvements, probably, will it ever be absolutely perfect, probably not.


#7
Will there be more accidents, probably, will there be more improvements, probably, will it ever be absolutely perfect, probably not.

Probably won’t be perfect…but I’ll bet it’ll be a hell of a lot better then it now…especially places like Boston.


#8

It’ll be like that movie Irobot where everyone is dependent on technology and have robots to take care of them… But thats awhile away from now. I just thought the one scene where he pulls out his old motorcycle and the woman character goes like “this thing runs on actual gas? And you gotta drive it yourself???” Day someone actually says those words will be funny.


#9

Tesla Model S cars equipped with autopilot have racked up 130 million miles with the autopilot system engaged…You can buy a Cadillac today with a similar system, you don’t have to wait until 2021…


#10
You can buy a Cadillac today with a similar system, you don't have to wait until 2021.

The Auto Pilot system that’s being discussed is COMPLETELY different then the one being developed by Google and others. GM will introduce their system by 2017…and it’s basically what Tesla has now…which is basically Super Cruise. It allows for complete hands and feet driving under certain conditions.

The system touted for 2021 is completely autonomous. You can take a nap while it drives you to work…The debate is weather it’ll actually be ready by 2021…I doubt it…but I suspect by 2025 or at the latest 2030.


#11

By 2021? Not a chance.


#12

Many companies are investing heavily in this. Advances are happening rapidly.

We hear about the big ones (Google, Apple, etc). But we hear less about the smaller ones here and abroad.

No one wants to be left out when the time comes to make big money from this.


#13

I still maintain that completely autonomous cars are a long way off. The type of decision making requires almost full AI (Artificial Intelligence) and that is not on the horizon.

Mike, I know you disagree, but if it’s not full AI that’s required, it’s very close.

The systems such as the GM one mentioned and the Tesla one, are just not practical. You can’t depend on a human operator to be ready to take over in an emergency, when he has no other tasks to keep him awake and attentive.

The exception would be special roads and areas (like parking lots/buildings) where everything is fully defined, and you can shut it down in bad conditions.


#14
Mike, I know you disagree, but if it's not full AI that's required, it's very close

No you don’t. The decision making part (AI) is not super complicated. There are more complicated systems in automated factories. The tricky part is in the sensors. Recognizing what an object is. But that part is not part of the decision process. It’s a subsystem that is very complicated but not insurmountable. I’ve been keeping up with this in the technical journals for the last 4 months. It’s amazing what’s been accomplished so far.


#15

Mike: We will have to agree to disagree.

Think of a construction worker waving you into the oncoming lane… How can any computer program recognize that, as opposed to someone standing in the street waving to you?


#16

Your putting too much into it. From a driving point of view there is no difference. The cars can already recognize a cop giving directions. And tell the difference between a homeless person and a cop in uniform.


#17

Self driving cars are out there already, 4 more years of research and development, POSSIBLE!


#18

I think most of the technology is there… But one of the main problems is the adoption rate it would take for everyone to own one of these “self driving” cars… And even then you’ll still have regular cars on the road. More to the point would you really trust a car though to do the driving for you? I would always worry about the software aspect of it


#19

I can barely get cell reception where I live, the HD TV messes up all the time, the electric grid goes off 12-20 times a week, the PC freezes up or blanks out regularly and blind faith is supposed to be placed in an autonomous car electronics…

When the powers that be clear the phone, TV, PC, and electric grid problems up I’ll think more positively…

One question I have is this. Assuming one is motoring along on auto pilot and a semi darts over in front of you and slams on the air brakes.
The brake application of the car would essentially be instantly but how is any computer system going to account for things like 50 feet of room while the stopping distance at that speed is say 120 feet?
Or how does it account for a faint oil slick? (I discovered that once on a motorcycle and brake application was almost pointless. Very close to buying the farm on that one.

Or when someone darts out in front of you and there are no options in regards to other escape routes?


#20

People who don’t understand technology are always afraid of it.