Where Are The Teslas?


#1

I live in Colorado, in the Denver area…I have not seen a Tesla Model 3 and only one Model S about a year ago…I read where 70,000 Model 3’s have been produced and are being delivered but where are they ?? I did a little checking and most of them are being sold and registered in California… After that, Texas and Florida absorb most of the rest…Warm weather states… There are only 3 Tesla showrooms in all of Colorado and only one service center…California has dozens…Same thing with charging stations…Here in the Rocky Mountain States they are few and far between…So what’s the problem ? Could it be that “winter driving conditions” greatly reduces the advertised range ? Heated seats and steering wheels, outside mirrors, popular options in the northern states may not be on the Tesla option list…Also, today, the “as delivered” price of a Model 3 is just under $70,000…I’m just wondering how all this will play out when the subsidies and rebates start ending on December 30th. Once the Model 3 backlog is filled, what then? Can Mr. Musk keep his dream alive ?


#2

I’ve heard there’s a lot of Tesla sales in Scandinavia, so it must not be entirely a cold weather thing. Here in northern Calif Tesla’s are very common, and seem to be very popular, despite a Consumer Reports down-rating due to reliability problem on some models. Given the acceleration they have, and the desire many drivers have to drive like they are in a car race, I expect they’ll continue to be hot sellers. If a Tesla is in front of my Corolla at the stop light, I know once the light changes I won’t be seeing them for long. they accelerate so fast the distance between me and the Tesla separates rather quickly. Maybe there are state incentives which vary state to state, another possible explanation.


#3

The only place I’ve seen any is going through Chicago, but where have you been the last few years?


#4

other than the model 3 owned by a co-worker i see several around Olympia on a regular basis. We’re supposed to get a Supercharger station in town very soon and the only other places in town that are on tesla’s site are hotels that offer charging to patrons only. Charging might be available in the mall parking lot but i don’t know the rates. The closest Tesla showroom’s are all in King County (seattle and Bellevue) with a greater number of charging options up there compared to even Tacoma.


#5

I’ve seen a bunch of the Model S, a couple of Model X and a few models 3’s here in Florida. A friend has had a Model 3 on order for 9 months or so.

Much like iPhones, there are folks that MUST own the new model coming out. So much so that they pony up the deposit and wait and wait and wait JUST because it is a Tesla. Those that just want an EV, buy a Bolt, Leaf, BMW or a plug-in hybrid.

Once the Tesla loyalists are satisfied, I suspect the sales will drop, aided by the loss of tax rebates. At that point, maybe we will see the prices drop, much like older iPhones. Problem is, Musk admitted his “$35,000” Model 3 will cost $38,000 to build netting a $3K loss on every car. There is no room to discount cars. That’s a problem.


#6

There are several in my neighborhood and owners by people who do not use them for long distance driving. One is a doctor who drives 6 miles to work and then plugs in the car into one of many block heater outlets we have here. He has a gas powered car for weekend travel to the mountains.

There are always early adaptors who will buy an item because of its novelty rather than hard economic analysis. The doctor’s Tesla cost over $90,000 dollars and sits in the parking lot at his clinic for all to see. By contrast, my dentist did his bit for the environment by driving a diesel Smart Car


#7

I did not think the diesel Smart Car was ever sold in the US .


#8

Of course winter driving conditions reduces range. That’s true of any vehicle. So what? Unless you’re driving more than 200 miles a day, it’s not going to impact you. That wouldn’t explain why you don’t see them.

Another possible explanation is that Colorado automatically tacks on a $50 fee for registering an electric vehicle, and only passed a tax rebate for new electric car purchases last year (which explains the >14% uptick in Tesla registrations in 2018).

I see Teslas daily where I live, and we get a lot colder than you guys do.


#9

Tesla’s are all over around here. We have a dealer in Boston. A guy I work with owns one. Very nice car.

200 mile range is more then adequate for over 90% of all drivers. I’d consider moving if I had to commute more then 200 miles a day. I’m currently at 60 miles round trip and I think it’s too much.


#10

Do you really think $50 difference in registration fee on $50K to $120K cars is responsible for 14 % jump in registrations?


#11

No, but as I said they implemented a tax rebate last year which was then immediately followed by a 14+% uptick in registrations in that state.

I do think that getting an extra $5,000 back on the price of the car might have influenced things a bit. In other words, Colorado went from being, legislatively, a fairly EV-hostile state to being a very EV-friendly state, and then suddenly Tesla sales went up.

I know that correlation isn’t causation, but I do think this particular correlation may indeed be due to causation.


#12

I’m not a huge fan of Tesla, but the company made it pretty crystal clear during the Model 3 launch that California would get the bulk of the cars initially. Your thoughts on winter range are unfounded and Teslas perform very well in New England and other cold areas. One thing that does benefit Tesla when delivering cars in the State in which it makes them is that it profits from the four-figure delivery fee it charges in all states.


#13

Where are the Tesla’s ? That is a tough question. Example if you asked me how many Roush Stage 2 Mustangs are in my area I would not have an answer . It turns out there is one two blocks from me but it is in the garage when at home and the owner leaves for work early . Just saying that because I don’t see a certain vehicle does not mean they are not near me.


#14

Because my gas powered car does not diminish by 50% when it gets cold out. In fact, I barely notice any difference. But run an EV in the same cold and the draw from heaters (battery, cabin etc) alone is significant. One example:


#15

The thing about that article is that it doesn’t break down the range reduction by car. It just gives us the average.

As we know from our school days, one F can torpedo an otherwise stellar average. So if, for instance, the Bolt’s range decreases by 70% in the cold, while the Tesla decreases by 30%, that’s still gonna make the average look pretty bad.

It gets further complicated when you consider actual battery capacity. None of the cars they tested have the same capacity. None of them have the same rated range.

In other words, a Tesla Model S-100 which loses half its range can still go 160+ miles on a charge. A first-gen Leaf with the same percentage reduction can only go 42 miles.

I don’t disagree that the range decreases, but I disagree that it’s a big deal for a lot of Tesla buyers because very few Tesla buyers are going to be commuting to work 80 miles one way. It certainly wouldn’t prevent Denver-area commuters from buying a Tesla - you could get to Colorado Springs or almost to Cheyenne, Wyoming on that range.


#16

Doc is in Canada not the US.


#17

Well I was initially just responding to the equality of the impact.

That range estimate is when new. It degrades from there. Plus, no way I’m running an electric car down into the weeds on charge like I might try with a gas engine because it’s going to be a heck of a lot more inconvenient if I run out. AAA can’t bring a bucket of electrons. So that 160 drops a lot more than that when you factor in those considerations. I don’t disagree that many people can be well served by electric car range as the better ones stand today. But take the Leaf example. 42 miles (arguably optimistic and when battery is brandy new) less 10% for aging and another 10 miles for safety margin and now I can’t make it to work let alone home…


#18

I understand your point, but that’s actually not true:

I completely agree with you on the Leaf, but @Caddyman was specifically asking why he doesn’t see Teslas, and even an old Model S-60 would easily handle a commute even when it’s cold.


#19

Must be Edina. I just thought it was interesting that it is a Ford gas or diesel truck with a gas generator rescuing an electic.


#20

I stand corrected!
:smile: