Here in Oregon we haven’t been ordered to close non-essential businesses but schools have been closed, restaurants are take-out only, and half the retail has been closed anyway. The streets are empty, everyone who can is working from home. And yet at the shop we are busier than we have been in 2 months. I have enough work to keep everyone busy through Wed and there is more on the schedule for next week. I can’t explain it.
Maybe people who are able are taking care of the car maintenance now, while they are home from work. Or maybe it’s going to be a long time before anyone wants to get on a plane, bus, or train. Everyone is going to want to be safe in their own car.
I was at Walmart yesterday buying kayak distress whistles (just trying to be FL compliant, ya know) and the entire auto “service” (?) section was closed and a sign said it will remain closed because of something to do with COVID19 and sanitizing, etcetera… Makes sense, right?
Wait… What?
From the website of my local newspaper, regarding Walmart: The Auto Care Centers have been temporarily shut down to allow those associates to prioritize “stocking and cleaning in the rest of the store.”
I guess that news sources in your area are not as informative.
I didn’t try news sources. I glanced at (didn’t slow to read it) the signs as I went in the back door where I park to avoid the crazies. Even if I had seen it in the news I would not have paid attention… it’s Walmart!
I guess that illustrates the high prestigious level of employment that these “automotive technicians” are afforded there. I mean how many valued, expertly educated technicians get to wipe down shopping cart handles at a MB dealership?
The cars could have the Virus germs on them from the owners or the service people . That means for reasonable practice the surfaces should be disinfected somehow. Why take a chance on damaging a customers vehicle or getting someone infected . Walmart is a needed business that many locations depend on so they should be appreciated for what seems to be a wise choice.
Many people depend on Walmart for groceries and the pharmacy. Nonessential departments like the automotive section can shut down temporarily while the essential departments I mentioned are maintained properly for the current situation.
Yeah, let’s stick with Illinois for now. There are currently 585 confirmed cases in the whole state. Let’s assume that represents 1% of all cases. Out of a population of roughly 13 million that means about 1/2% of people have it in some form. Again, the risk of exposure is greater in and around Chicago. Our daughter lives in Illinois and I take her risk seriously but 1/2% isn’t a huge number and the real number is likely smaller. It’s certainly not a reason to hide under the covers and wait for death.
Until the incredibly problem-plagued Federal effort has been resolved, and COVID test kits are actually available in large numbers, nobody really knows how many people are infected.
(Hint: Once wide-spread testing becomes available, the number of “positive” cases will rise… dramatically.)
I have no doubt the number of confirmed cases will rise, perhaps dramatically, but I was specifically referring to a 100 fold increase. Frankly I doubt the number will be that high.
No it’s not. It is likely larger, much larger. Since there isn’t widespread testing yet, many people that contracted COVID-19 aren’t counted. 100 times higher? Easily that high, maybe higher. Death percentages may go down when widespread testing is available, but the infection rate will go up dramatically. I’m not frightened because I’ve been a lot closer to death than I am right now. That gave me perspective. I feel great, and I’m grateful for that. If I start feeling like I contracted COVID-19, that might change. Until then, I will fell like the lucky guy that I am.
Without question!
In the meantime, here is some additional reason for optimism. While the number of positive cases will climb exponentially as a result of this new test, it should help healthcare personnel to deliver their services:
I’m part of a crew of valued expert technicians. When a car is dispatched to us, we put on a clean pair of gloves and wipe down the keys, the exterior door handle, the steering wheel, shifter, turn signal, park brake, and inside handle and window switches. We then throw away the gloves and wipes and put on another clean pair to drive the car.
School has been out for over a week now. Yesterday the 11 year old next door started a cough and a fever, and the 7 year old has it today. Is it corona? Who knows? Absent any kind of meaningful testing I think it’s wise to assume yes. There are only a handful (3?) confirmed cases in my city. I think a thousand fold increase is likely here.
While this is a problem shutting down everything is changing one problem for a much bigger firestorm when all these companies layoff everyone and then no one has health coverage so you get millions of people who cant afford healthcare and or get needed drugs for cancer, diabetes and other life threatening diseases and where are these people going to end up ? Yes into the hospitals . Is the state or federal govt going to pay for healthcare now ? Cuomo is saying months here , if that happens then you are looking at a major depression with food lines and rationing .
There’s a fascinating (to me, anyway) program on the BBC called “More Or Less.” The host receives questions of a statistical nature from listeners and finds experts to answer them. A few weeks ago a man had a question about the mortality rate of COVID19. A rate of about 3.6% was being reported but his own calculations, based on reported cases vs. reported deaths, gave 18%. An expert in epidemiology pointed out that the static included a best estimate of unreported/undiagnosed cases, which brought the rate down into the neighborhood of 3.6%. 18 vs. 3.6 is a ratio of about 5:1, which gives 4 unreported/undiagnosed cases for each known one. That’s it. Four. The number of known cases will undoubtedly rise as testing begins in earnest and the US is way behind in that regard but by a factor of hundreds? Thousands? The extinction of humanity? No.
Remember too that the more undiagnosed/unreported cases the lower the mortality rate becomes. If the number is hundreds of times the number of known cases that means the mortality rate is minuscule. Either there aren’t as many cases as you think or the virus itself is simply no big deal. Pick one. My life will go on either way.
The problem isn’t the end of humankind or even society. It’s the possibility that the disease might overwhelm the medical system. If that happens, someone has to decide who gets treatment and who doesn’t among the group of severely affected patients. No one wants to make that decision. I have problems deciding who is going to suffocate because they can’t get a ventilator.
Which has less to do with the number of cases than with the failure to get out in front of the problem. Not assigning blame or getting needlessly political but there are clear reasons South Korea is doing better at dealing with it than the US.
I have not been aggressively monitoring this or the other Covid-related discussions because I figured it’s the weekend, and life looks different for many of us right now. I have been watching how people are talking about this, and it’s easy for it to look like much ado about nothing in places where there are no cases. (There’s a meme floating around online involving a 3% death rate and Skittles that I cannot share here because it is a family forum.) however, I live in Manhattan and I had been classified as an essential employee who had to go to the office until today. It’s very scary here and it’s not much comfort to know that 5/6 people don’t need to go to the hospital, or the virus has such a low mortality rate. JT is right; the fear is the overwhelmed medical system, and that we are all piled on top of each other all the time. I’m not saying your experience isn’t true, but there’s another one being had. Hope you all stay healthy, and can we please get back to cars? Otherwise I’ll start talking about public transit during the outbreak.
Anyone else practicing precautions? I am using sandwich bags, cheap and easily disposable for gas pump handles and touchscreens etc. Made my own wipes, 70% isopropyl mixed with a little hand lotion. Went today to get more ispropyl at the walgreens a nice walk away, sold out.! New project, masks!
I did not and would not suggest there is no problem. However, it might be constructive to focus effort and resources where they can do the most good. Thus, closing down an entire state to combat something that primarily affects a handful of urban areas seems excessive and ill advised. As always, YMMV.
It’s a cold. Most people will not be terribly distressed by it. However, folks with compromised health could suffer consequences, some severe, as they could for many different reasons.
I’m certainly not going to panic or drastically alter my life style with this stuff. However, I am trying to practice “social distancing” to help those who are freaking out or have compromised health.
The swimming pool, gulf, or ocean is a nice place to go because this virus is not a water borne virus.
Take a deep breath! Don’t panic folks! It’s okay. Keep enjoying life, please. Some people will suffer more harm from stress than from a virus. CSA
