A little extra info:
It’s a bit dated, and doesn’t show distances, but rather commute times. Average commutes in the US take 25.5 minutes. New Hampshire comes in at 25.3 minutes. Estimating travel speed at 65 mph (legal limit) the whole way would give average distances at 27.41 miles each way… or 54.8 miles round trip…
Now obviously you’re not going to have all citizens driving their entire commutes at the limit, so I’d wager that the average round trip is a good deal under 54.8 miles… meaning that there are likely a good number of people for whom a Volt might be a better financial decision than a Prius, even in NH. Of course, if you get a bi-modal distribution of commutes, the Volt might not work for everyone.
It’s just a serious overstatement to claim that because a vehicle might not make sense for you that it wouldn’t make sense for anyone, when it might fit well for a large majority of people.
Heck, I have no use whatsoever for a truck (the few times I need one renting is a better option)… but that doesn’t mean that it isn’t by far the best option for some other people.
I’ll wait and see about that $49k Tesla base S price (after government rebates).
The $40k (before rebates) Ford Focus electric (not Fusion) looks like a better bet to me:
As makers come out with ‘reasonably’ priced EVs, those Tesla S’s with their high prices will find few buyers.
Eraser, much of the Tesla cost went to R&D. They spent huge sums of money developing the control and cooling systems for the lithium ion arrays. the process took years and many millions.
Texases, it’s just a very paltry range for a company with the resources of GM, especially considering what a tiny start up like Tesla was able to accomplish. And to have the Volt hit the market at a price 50% higher than the Prius…well, that just doesn’t seem to me llke a formula for a successful new wonder car.
@texases,
Agreed - I think the Focus Electric looks like a potentially better option than the Leaf, Tesla S, and even the Volt, as long as you don’t need the extended range bit or the extra size of the Model S… but the Tesla sure looks better (though of course the Fusion Energi looks a lot like the Tesla Model S, so…)
Personally, I think Tesla will struggle - without a dealer network for support, it’ll be hard to justify the much higher prices, even if they have greater brand equity or better looks. I, personally, wouldn’t even consider one right now - their service model of housecalls means that I would have to pay nearly $800 for them just to look at my car. By comparison, Ford will at least have local service available at ordinary rates for the Focus Electric when it goes on sale here late this summer.
Of course, I still don’t drive enough to justify any of these…
Tesla clearly has an uphill struggle and a long road ahead. I’m rootin’ for 'em, mainly because they proved that a “green” car doesn’t have to look homely and they dove in and solved some of the biggest technical problems. I hope they make it.
@the same mountainbike -
You are correct that Tesla’s cost structure is heavily weighted towards R&D (and general management). The problem is that their R&D has been going on for years and hasn’t led to revenue streams to slow the bleed of cash - in fact, their cash bleed has been getting worse. You can only keep a business going like that for a limited time. Toyota bailed them out once already. If they don’t right their fiscal ship soon, they’re simply doomed, no matter how great the technology. See the example of Ballard fuel cells for a similar case of great tech coming out without a sound business plan to fund that development and stop the cash bleed,
And again as for the tech. success of the Volt - notice that it really currently outperforms the Prius plugin. Why couldn’t Toyota do better? Because its a gigantic game of tradeoffs. Tesla chose to put in a LOT more batteries than GM, but they lose the battle for those with range anxiety as a result, as well as coming up with a MUCH more expensive vehicle. Even the Model S is coming in well over the Volt’s price - a full $17k+ for the base model. The Prius plugin, on the other hand, didn’t add enough batteries (but did add far more than enough in price) over the base Prius to make it a good tradeoff under almost any circumstances.
In extended range mode, the $40k Volt gets 36 mpg. The $17k Corolla gets 34 mpg. You need to do a lot of sub 35 mile trips to pay for the difference, not to mention the $23k upfront cost you could use for golf junkets.
The Volt is and will be an advertising gimmick or GM. The $24k Prius at 48 mpg looks better all the time. That’s why Toyota has made the decisions it has…can’t argue with success.
Well stated Dag.
I seem to recall that committing to bringing the Volt to fuition was also an agreement made by GM to the feds while asking for fed bailout money. Perhaps the Volt was more than just a business decision?
@dagosa -
Actually, the Volt is rated 37 mpg combined in extended range mode, while the Corolla is 29 mpg combined. The Focus, the vehicle I used above is 31 mpg combined. The Volt still pays back relative to the Focus for some people, depending on the amount of miles they drive (and those don’t have to be all sub 35 mile trips). The Volt even pays back relative to the Prius if you have the right usage habits and/or gas gets expensive enough.
BTW, the Volt costs under $32k to the consumer, not $40k, and GM makes a marginal profit on them. The Prius once cost Toyota well over twice its actual sales price to build, and Toyota also got government tax credits on them. While it has been successful, comparing it in its second model year to the Volt? The Volt looks like the homerun success story there…
“And then there’s the Nissan Leaf that has a range of 62 miles before the engine kicks in and costs LESS then the Volt.”
The Leaf does not have an ICE. It is all electric. While a 62 mile range might work for some, it doesn’t for me. My wife could use it, and could also use a Volt without buying gas.
Eraser…I hear what you are saying and you make your point well…My mileage figures are all highway. The biggest reason NOT to buy a Volt IMO, is that it’s a new model for $40 k (someone’s tax dollars are paying for it) and Corollas and Prius are proven long term cars with very good reliability. There are a lot of “ifs” in the pay back
Scenerio.
. Most importantly…
Even at $32k (insurance based on retail though)it’s still nearly twice the amount of a base Corolla. I wonder what the yearly insurance costs, including comprehensive, and registration, on a $40k car compared to a Corolla (or even a 24k Prius) will be. Do you think that eats up a lot of gas savings as well ? Just asking.
What I like about a Hybrid-If I run out of gas,can probaly still make it to a gas station(plus recovering a lot of wasted energy-Kevin
The problem I see with the Volt…is you have to have short commute to really take advantage of it’s capabilities. The problem with that is…if you have a short commute…then you’re probably NOT putting a lot of miles on the car…and it’ll take a lot longer to recoup that $23k difference difference between the Volt and a comparability equipped vehicle…if you ever could even recoup the cost.
A hybrid on the other hand you start reaping the benefits for short commutes or long commutes. If you have a commute like my neighbor who drives 20 miles each way to work…with only about 5 of that on the highway…a hybrid works perfectly. Puts about 30k + each year on his Civic Hybrid…cost is a LOT cheaper then the Volt…and he’ll reap the rewards much sooner.
But as I said before…The Volt technology is new…And I know GM is working on a 100mile range Volt. Let’s wait a few years…and the Volt may then be able to appeal to a wider range of commuters. It surely is NOT a vehicle for a good majority of New Hampshire drivers.
@dagosa - and those are good points to make. That’s why I have openly stated (and continue to state) that the Volt is for a limited audience, but it DOES make sense for some people. That’s really no different than the Prius was (and still is, to some extent)… I think we have far too many people trying desperately to find a reason to declare the Volt a failure commercially or technologically. It is really new technology, no one else has been able to produce a vehicle matching its capabilities, and many of the closest competitors are either bigger compromises (Leaf) or potentially less financially sound option (Prius plugin).
Give it some time and see where it goes… Personally, I think the biggest risk to plugin hybrids like the Volt being a failure would be rapid battery technology advancement - Some of the solid state batteries in development now promising extremely short charge times, thousands of cycles, long range, and low cost might well push tech. like the Volt out of existence before it ever really takes hold. Even the Prius would likely die out in that case…
@MikeInNH - the catch is that you really don’t have to have short commutes in the Volt to make it viable. In fact, if you have really short commutes, the best option financially is simply just an old-fashioned IC powered compact car. The Volt, as I showed, has a narrow range of commutes where it becomes a decent choice as an IC replacement before a standard hybrid takes over as a better option, at today’s gas prices. But at the gas prices we keep hearing about (which I doubt we’ll see this year) or the prices that they pay in Europe, that range for the Volt widens dramatically. So while you may only go 35 miles on electricity alone, and then after that you’ll be using more gas than in a Prius, the lower operating costs for that first 35 miles more than makes up for the higher gas prices for awhile after that. Even close to the commute ranges you talk about having yourself, you could end up with it being a decent option if gas is $5/gal.
BTW, the cost difference isn’t anywhere close to $23k. A base Civic, Corolla, Focus, or Cruze is pretty much going to run you $17k anymore, while the Volt will cost you $31,118 according to Edmunds (don’t forget the $7500 credit - which I think is a bit absurd, but don’t forget all the tax breaks the gov’t gave for Priuses years ago, too). Of course, if you start talking comparably equipped, any of those plain-jane compacts will now exceed $20k to get anywhere close to a Volt’s equipment. If you go by truedelta.com’s feature adjusted price, the difference is really about $9446 between a Volt and a Corolla. (I think those features are largely useless, but hey). The feature adjusted price difference between a Volt and a Civic Hybrid is more in the $4500-5000 range, depending on equipment.
Personally, I wouldn’t buy either - I’m still a bit of a “show me” type in that I want proof that the Volt’s battery won’t degrade (it has higher demands on it than the Prius, though it still only uses 50% of its rated capacity). And I wouldn’t touch a Civic Hybrid after Honda’s problems with them lately.
dagosa
Even at $32k (insurance based on retail though)it’s still nearly twice the amount of a base Corolla. I wonder what the yearly insurance costs, including comprehensive, and registration, on a $40k car compared to a Corolla (or even a 24k Prius) will be. Do you think that eats up a lot of gas savings as well ? Just asking.
Good question.
I got quotes online for a Volt vs. a Corolla base model from my insurance company. $250 comprehensive, $500 collision deductibles with $500k injury, $100k property coverage. Not a ton of difference at 20,000 miles per year (well over what I actually drive):
2012 Chevrolet Volt: $50.28 per month
2012 Toyota Corolla: $43.71 per month
The difference there is less than the difference in gas between a Corolla and a Focus, and is only likely to get smaller over time.
@MikeInNH - the catch is that you really don’t have to have short commutes in the Volt to make it viable.
When compared to what??? The cost difference between the Volt and say the Honda Civic Hybrid…make the Volt not very viable…Do your own google search…Long commutes like mine (about 100 miles round trip) and average gas mileage is lucky to get 40…some are saying under 30.
I saw the show and thought it was well done and interesting. In the end I thought it only succeeded in painting a brave face on all electric technology that isn’t ready for prime time.
Elon Musk belongs in the same hall of fame as John DeLorian, Malcolm Bricklin, and Ed Bass, the force behind Biosphere II. Maybe Smokey Yunick with his Adiabatic Engine deserves a place there as well. Almost everyone at some point in their life believes they have a killer idea. Few like the ones mentioned have the personal will and the bank roll to push a project through to failure.
The show’s producers seemed to imply Lutz backed the Volt as redemption from the failure of the EV-1. Technically, as a hybrid the Volt didn’t belong with the other pure electric vehicles. His ties to the EV-1 were the only link to get him on the show. My take, Lutz saw the show as a marketing opportunity for himself and the Volt. GM euthanized the EV-1 before it died of natural causes. Those left wondering “if only” should move on. The Nissan Leaf is a far better iteration of the EV-1 and it doesn’t seem to be doing well in the U.S. market
The OP forgot to mention Carlos Ghosn the CEO of Renault who was brought into take the helm of struggling Nissan. Essentially, he bet about 6 billion of the Company’s uncertain future on all electric vehicles. Only time will tell.
And, there is the guy who lost his garage, a true believer. I have to admire his grit, but no fire insurance? Almost everyone at some point in their life believes they have a killer idea.
"MikeInNH
When compared to what??? The cost difference between the Volt and say the Honda Civic Hybrid…make the Volt not very viable…Do your own google search…Long commutes like mine (about 100 miles round trip) and average gas mileage is lucky to get 40…some are saying under 30. "
At 100 miles you are looking to be too much for the Volt to be the best solution in most cases. However, as I showed, you’re not nearly so far off as you would think. And at 100 miles round trip, you are WELL above the national average or even the average for New Hampshire.
BTW, the difference in price between the Civic Hybrid and the Volt is smaller than you let on. Equip them as comparably as you can, and you’re looking at $7500 in difference, with the Volt still having about $2500-3000 more worth of equipment (according to truedelta.com’s valuations).
I’d be interested in knowing where you get your sub-30 mpg claim for the Volt, though. I haven’t seen a single story reporting anywhere near that. On the other hand, stories are rampant about the Civic Hybrid not getting any better mileage than the base Civic, thanks to Honda’s attempt to avoid repairing batteries.