ICE vs. EV – 5 year ownership cost

General Discussion
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According to several studies in the US and the EU - if 80% of vehicles on the road went to EV’s it would only increase Grid Capacity by 10-15%. There have been numerous studies on this all over the world. Much of that increase can be offset by a lot of people going solar and charging their vehicles at home. And their studies have shown that well over 50% of EV charging will be at night when power consumption is low, so it won’t affect the grid at all.

They are looking into it. One of my investment funds is in power. I get several annual reports from several different power companies. Everyone is investing in expanding the Grid. Some through Solar. Some through Wind. Others are updating existing plants.

I don’t think that power is the utility companies biggest problem. Right now their biggest problem is having their network compromised. They haven’t put enough effort in this and now they decided to play catchup. Our grid is extremely vulnerable. It’s been shown that over 70% of our nation can be without power for weeks/months through terrorist attacks. And we have zero defense in place right now to prevent it.

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152

+1
One of my major long-term holdings is the Vanguard Energy Fund. About 2 years ago, they began adding electric utilities and solar and wind power companies to their traditional fossil fuel portfolio, so obviously they can see the handwriting on the wall.

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Very simple math using USGov data:

If 100% of cars were EV:

Average kilowatt hours to move an electric vehicle 1 mile:
0.346kWh

Total >>additional<< kWh needed for 1 year of electric vehicle travel in the USA:
1,141,800,000,000 kWh
This is roughly a 28% increase in capacity. If we started today, in earnest, it would take 10+ years; planning for the future, a minimum of 40% would be prudent which will take longer.

Where will this power come from?

Nuclear:
1,141,800,000,000 / 778,000,000,000
You need 147% more nuclear reactors
We are building ZERO

NatGas
1,141,800,000,000 / 1,575,000,000,000
You need 73% more NatGas plants
How many are we building?

Coal:
1,141,800,000,000 / 899,000,000,000
You need 127% more coal plants
How many are we building?

Wind:
1,141,800,000,000 / 380,000,000,000
You need 300% more commercial turbines

There are ~71,000 wind turbines in use.
You will need to add an additional 213,000

How long will it take?
How much energy/materials are required to build/maintain/scrap those turbines and where does that come from?
How many of the original 71k will need to be replaced during that time?
How much land will it take?
Is that land available; there is a limited number of acres that are fit to generate wind.

Add all of this up and you are back to where I started…we’re putting the cart before the horse…in 5 to 10 years it will be clear to all but the most dense that the rush to EV’s was a financial/ecological disaster.

Not against EV’s…in big cities they make a lot of sense…cars sitting still in hours long traffic jams burn gasoline and pollute…EV’s do not.

Charging at night…Many MILLIONS of cars sitting in apartment complex parking lots and “off street” only parking do not have access to a power outlet at night. Another HUGE problem that is not even on the radar. The answer is always “we’ll figure it out”…no, you won’t, not in the short time you have.

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154

Old days , enough already. I don’t think you are going to change many minds or change your thinking . Time to move on to something else .

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There is no changing CLOSED minds; but not all minds are closed. Many people read here, but do not post. Many are looking for information, which is what I am providing.

Why don’t you “give it up” with your “enough already” posts and stop trying to silence the exchange of information and different viewpoints between people?

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157

I’d say we are well beyond that !!!

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Like yours, maybe?

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I don’t want to start a fight again and I have t read rules for radicals for a while, but wasn’t a rule to charge the other with what you yourself are doing?

So at least present some evidence as they say.

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Not disputing your statistic, but wonder how that number is derived. If car was 100% efficient, the only energy needed would be for it to change from a lower speed to a higher speed. With no inefficiencies, A car could continue on at the same speed indefinitely, requiring no power at all, for an indefinite number of miles. EV 's aren’t frictionless, the electric motors aren’t 100% efficient, wasting some of the energy as heat, and nobody drives in a straight line for hundreds of miles at the same speed. So some sort of assumptions are made to determine the number of kwh/ mile for a typical EV. Just wondering what those assumptions are? And are realistic for the majority of future EV designs?

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From congressional testimony, they simplified it to being like plugging in 25 refrigerators at one time. Or 50 if you have two cars. I don’t know what the draw but I do know my little generator could only handle one at at time and the freezer would have to wait it’s turn.

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Using less gas equates to a higher cost of ownership. ???
Cost of ownership is paramount to me. I couldn’t care less about seeming green or impressing anyone. But yes, comparing a Corolla and a Tesla is ridiculous.

This reminds me of a conversation I had with a VW dealer during the Gas crisis in the 70s who was selling VWs at very inflated prices. He actually said " If you want economy, you have to pay for it.":

I did not buy his VW and I am not buying an EV and I would not be buying one at this point in their development if I was 50 years younger either.

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It’s going to take 30+ years before we’re at 100% EV’s. More like 50 years. Nice try though.

Added point is the increased efficiency in batteries. Battery technology is changing constantly. There are dozens (if not hundreds) of startups in this country and others that are working new batteries that have the potential to be 500-1000 percent more efficient. Your biggest flaw is you keep making predictions based on technology of today. And you fail every time.

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Sure, it can and often does. Why is that so difficult to accept? It’s much like anything else in life, isn’t it?

I can go to dinner and eat a corn dog and fries, or grilled halibut and a wedge salad. Both will fill me up. Which costs more? Which is healthier?

I buy my 78 year old mother a plane ticket at Christmas so she can come see her grandkids. I can fly her first class or economy. Both will get her here just the same, but one costs more. Which is better?

I can buy an economical, reliable car, but if the first thing I think when I get in is “I hate driving this Corolla, and I can’t stand going to the gas station. I wish I had a Tesla”, did I make the right choice?

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Shifting to battery/ev is not the cheaper option. Otherwise we’d be doing it already. It may be the necessary option, if done in a rational manner.

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To Mike’s point, it’s a technical evolution not a moment in time. I was reading about hybrid systems where they are using super capacitors to power the electronics in the car and using LiON as the propulsion source. A super cap can be recharged in seconds. You might even have a system that does it while you drive, like a strip in the roadway using wireless charging. This provides a significant improvement in range capability. There is development work ongoing to modify the super cap technology to improve its ability to deliver peak power over longer periods that could eventually displace the LiON pack altogether. If/when we got to this point, an EV recharge will be equivalent to a stop for gasoline today- maybe even faster.

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On the subject of evolution, NASA and Nissan are working on a sulfur/selenium solid stated battery that is more energy dense than Li-ion batteries and charges in 15 minutes instead of a few hours. Pilot launch is 2024 and full production is as early as 2028. Also since it’s solid state, it can be stacked vertically.

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And, GM’s new Ultium battery technology allows for 100 miles of range from just 10 minutes on a Level 2 charger.

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That’s nice and an improvement but of interest to me is what and where the materials are mined and the use of child and slave labor.

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Sulfur is available as a byproduct of natural gas and petroleum production. It’s also the fifth most abundant element in Earth and is pretty much available without cowtowing to the Russians or Chinese. 7% of the world’s production of selenium is Russian! Then again, the balance is mostly from Germany, Japan, and Belgium. Selenium is also available in the US. I hope that makes you happy because I like it and it would be great to share that joy with you.

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Well I’m happy if you are.