500,000 F-EVs Annually - New Ford Plant

Sure you’ve all seen the YouTube videos of people trying to use the Lightning as a work truck (hauling heavy stuff) and the results being, well, go watch the videos again.

Ford sold 650,000 Trucks in 2022, a 10% decline by the way, so it looks like the plan is to stop selling gas/diesel powered trucks in 2025 when the EV plant is in operation.

I’m sure the grocery getters will buy one, but people that need work trucks are going to the competitors lineup that will feature gas/diesel.

Ford is a slow motion train wreck…

# Ford projects a $3B loss from its EV division in 2023
…its electric vehicle division lost $2.1 billion in 2022, and $900 million in 2021.

Ford built 62,000 EV’s in 2022 = $33,871 LOSS per car built…YIKES!

Ford spent $5 BILLION on recall/warranty costs in 2019
In 2020 it was $3.87 BILLION

Ford has 120 years of experience building gas powered cars and warranty claims are atrocious…3x that of GM…and now they’re diving head first into EV’s which the CEO admits they’re a couple generations behind Telsa which has it’s own problems.

Ford had to halt battery production (has it restarted?) a month ago because of “design issues” leading to fires when the battery is fully charged. Does that mean a recall of those 62,000 cars built to install new battery packs or “apply a fix” like, maybe, not charging the battery to 100% while showing 100% on the dashboard? LOL:0

I was reading a review of a Nissan Leaf. The battery technically failed and the owner took it in for a warranty replacement. The dealer applied a “software update” and guess what, the battery was now registering as good! but the car still went far less miles than it should per charge…LOL!

Ford sold 10% fewer $82,000 trucks with $15,000 dealer adjustment? I see a pattern

Yes. Who knew that in a country where most people earn $50k per year or less that it would be difficult to sell $80k trucks and SUVs? (Apparently, the executives who run these companies think that people can keep borrowing to buy their overpriced products forever, but that’s not how things work.)

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…and the price of EV’s is silly. The world isn’t crying out for $50k to $80k EV’s but that’s what everyone wants to build. Ford says it will not go after the $80k+ market…still, $50k+ is out of reach for a big chunk of the market.

Right now, at a large local Ford dealer, the cheapest new gas vehicle they have on the lot is $37,000. Ford has abandoned the sub $30k market just as the world heads for a recession/depression…good luck with that business plan…selling expensive cars to unemployed people.

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Without reading the whole thing, ford thought they might have a pre-tax slight profit by 2026. At least they were brave enough to report earnings by profit(loss) center. Awaiting a similar report by Mary at Gm. Can’t see either of these folks lasting much longer with a stockholder revolt. But it’s for the kids doncha know.

Wanna bet on that? Nowhere do I read that Ford stops making ICE trucks in 2025.

They sold ~600,000 gas Trucks

They are building a plant with plans to produce ~500,000 EV Trucks.

Ok, sure, they can keep building Gas trucks but at crazy low volumes…your $80k truck is going to $120k.

Common sense here…high volume generally equals lower prices. Ford is not going to sell 600k gas trucks and 500k EV trucks…one or the other, or nothing in bankruptcy.

If they offer gas trucks, that will kill EV truck sales. If they end gas, and you want a Ford, you have to buy an EV. Of course, you can also switch to a gas competitor…

$50,000 per year barely gets you onto the bottom rung of middle class in most of the US.

According to one source, 38% of car buyers paid cash recently:

That’s great. I am part of the 38% cash buyers…but I am not buying $80k new vehicles, or $50k new vehicles, or even $20k used vehicles. I am buying $3k and under used vehicles, and some of my best buys have been under $2k. What would be more useful is a chart showing how purchasers of new vehicles paid…after all, that is who Ford is selling to.

Doesn’t Ford offer a small truck in both ICE , and hybrid engine configurations? Maverick? Maybe that is part of the plan, the Maverick is for customers who prefer an ICE engine or need a lower purchase price.

Didn’t Ford used to have a Maverick in their line-up, early 70’s I think, it was car, not a truck?

With plans to produce up to 500,000 EVs… IF the demand is there. Car plants are somewhat scalable based on their break-even costs and number of shifts they run. If there is a demand for one shift pounding out 150,000 or less EV trucks, Ford will run one shift. If the demand is 300,000, they’ll run 2.

Ford has two plants producing F150s and one Super Duty plant. If the the EV truck creates conquest sales from GM and Ram, their overall sales rise from 600K to maybe 750K total ICE and EV. IF the Ford EV takes sales from the F150, they’ll scale back the Kansas City plant or the River Rouge F150 production. That’s how the business is run.

Ford has separate divisions for ICE and EV product lines. The EV division is not yet profitable.

So I repeat, Wanna bet Ford stops ICE truck production in 2025?

That ridiculous Ford Maverick truck has a 4.5 foot bed and try and find one for less than 40000.00 .

Truck buyers don’t think they are ridiculous, they are selling very well. My dealer has only 3… 2 at $26,000 and one at $35,000

I’m told the ice kicks in at 40 mph which makes a whole lot more sense than all battery. You can drive all day, just fill the tank, and when you hit Chicago you’ll be all electric at 20 mph.

The Ford dealers in Northeast Oklahoma all seem to had Additional Dealer Profit added to Maverick truck . One is has on the web site that 10000.00 is added to the 36000.00 sticker price.

Wanna bet Ford stops ICE truck production in 2025?

Since you’re a gambler…

I’ll bet you:

  1. Ford still produces ICE Trucks in 2025 and beyond.
  2. ICE truck production is 50% less than 2023.
  3. EV truck production is no where near 500,000 in 2023/24
  4. Ford is still losing BILLIONS on it’s EV business.
  5. Ford is losing money on it’s ICE business and EV business because the plants are 60% idle.
  6. At the end of 2023, Ford will have lost $6 BILLION on it’s 2023/22/21 EV business.
  7. Sometime before 2029, Ford goes bankrupt and is either bought out or bailed out.
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We don’t know what kind of deal has been made with the feds though. Gotta be a reason why people have jumped in all of a sudden. Customer demand was not there. Money, arm twisting, threats? All have been used in other enterprises.

I think the push is 3 fold:

  1. CAFE standards; you can’t meet the coming regs with ICE.
  2. Subsidies - billions in imaginary money, from thin air, is up for grabs, but only if you build EV’s.
  3. The first EV company to reach Too Big To Fail status wins the bailout.

Ford will have lost SIX BILLION DOLLARS at the end of 2023 on it’s EV business. That is clown world laughable; exactly when do they expect to make a profit? They need SIX BILLION DOLLARS in profit just to break even!

Oh Geeze…did I do the math right?

5% profit margin on a new car for the manufacturer.
X = Total sales needed to earn $6B profit.

.05x = 6,000,000,000

Ford needs to sell, at a 5% profit margin, a total of $120,000,000,000 worth of EV’s.

If each one sells for $50,000, that’s 2,400,000 EV’s or 5 years of production at ~500k units annually just to break even…how many more years to pay for all the warranty work. If everything goes just right, 10 or 15 years from now, Ford’s EV business will have made a profit…LOL!

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Well #1 is a reversal of your previous post… but I agree with #1, 3 and 4, so no bet there. disagree with #2 and 5, 6 and especially 7. We’ll come back here in 2029 to see the results.

Since the EV business is accounted seperately from the ICE business, it could be bankrupted on its own which is one of the reasons Ford did it in the first place.

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