Hi all -
I don’t know much about how to track used car prices over time, much less predicting when car prices will drop. Would now be a good time to buy used, or which month is it likely to start going down if now is not a good time?
I’d say your guess is as good as anybody’s. There is no magic 8-ball that can predict the future price of a product like a used car. There are too many things that can affect it upwards or downwards and “black swans” that can cause a price crash or skyrocket.
My best advice is visit the used car selling sites, Autotrader, KBB, whatever you like, and watch the local prices of the type of car you want to buy and chart it. Write the price down every week or month and see if the price is trending UP, or trending DOWN. That will at least give you an idea as to the direction the market is headed.
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Charting it is a great suggestion, I’ll do that - If you want something done right… 
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If someone had that answer they could become very rich . There are just too many things to have an effect on prices . Fuel price - loan rates - vehicle availability and anything else you can think of.
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@hiker679_179136 Did you return the Carvana Jeep ? If a used one is still in your want list just find every vehicle selling site you can find including classic ones like Hemmings , Bring a Trailer and you just might find one that you feel like you can live with the price.
The shortage of new cars is still in place, so that’ll still affect used car prices. I have no idea how much.
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I just tried to return it and get my car back per the appointment that was set by Carvana. I live in Michigan and there is a snowstorm today. Carvana was supposed to have my old Jeep ready for me to take home and somehow it’s been taken to Ohio. So they are ‘going to get back to me’. Now 2 strikes against Carvana. I don’t need a third, lol - regular dealerships or private sale only!
I’ll try your technique, seems logical, thanks
2 strikes against Carvana ? I don’t think so . First they have a 7 day return policy , most used vehicle dealers do not have that and private sellers certainly don’t. They also have a decent warranty that most do not have.
As for the traded vehicle going to another state that is common for Carvana and Carmax . If you see a vehicle on their site miles away you can pay a shipping fee and have it brought to your local facility and you do not have to purchase it .
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1st Strike, giving me a vehicle with possible transmission issues without giving me enough time to fix them (it was up to me to find a mechanic that filled their ‘criteria’ with their parts and I couldn’t with COVID backing up every mechanic around) before my 7 days + the gracious 2 day extension, would have been up. Not only should that have been found in the inspection, but 9 days is not enough during COVID and should have been extended to a more realistic timeline.
2nd Strike, not calling me to tell me not to drive during rush hour in a snow storm even though my old vehicle was within the ‘9’ day window and hundreds of miles away, not where they said it would be.
I’m sure it is purely a matter of opinion but 2 strikes are generous, IMO. Guess it depends on how much of their work you want to do for them and how many expectations you want removed while still believing it is a great service.
Sounds to me like Carvana is whole lot better at selling cars than “returning” cars, or accepting returns.
I’ve never used Carvana myself, but some family members have had very good experiences with them
A good time to be buying a Used Car (or any car)? NOOOOOOOO!!!
We’re seeing a Short Supply (Chips), a surging Demand (post covid lockdowns) and reduced supply (Covid induced Port and Manufacturing bottlenecks) that have absolutely nothing to do with the inherent cost of making a vehicle.
A year or so from now I suspect that a lot of folks who bought now are going to be pretty unhappy but my sympathy is for those folks who had to buy that clapped out, gussied up, high mileage jalopy at top dollar to simply get to work today.
On the other hand the good news is that companies like Ford are finally starting to bring back things like affordable pickups, with the Maverick Hybrid Pickup MSRP starting at only $20,000.
The bad news is that there’s already 100,000 orders for the 2023 and demand has been so strong that Ford has stopped accepting orders
A quaility affordable car for the masses? “Who would have thunk it?” (except for maybe the Ford Model T & Mustang, the VW Bug and the Citroen Deux Cheveaux).
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In the last two-weeks, two of my vehicles, a 2019 Toyota Corolla SE Hatchback and my 2020 Honda Fit, have received offers from the dealers that sold them to me for more than I paid for them to start off.
Actually, the offer was twofold, I could trade them in for a lot more money than I paid for them with the purchase of a new 2022 vehicle (but since they have such a short supply of new cars, they offered to let me take a loaner until the new ones arrive. They actually make it out as if I will come out ahead. I said I would be paying a lot more for the new car, but they counter with, “You’ll be getting an all new warranty…”
The other “half” of their offer was an outright purchase for more than I paid for them in the first place, but not as generous…
Hey, I checked their used car sales lot and if I wanted to sell these, and buy replacements. The Money they offer would only get me 4 to 6-year old cars with a lot more miles on them…
So, if you want to know if the price of cars is coming down, I would say NOT. Not at least in Eastern Virginia.
I have gotten offers lower than the purchase price by a couple of grand, 11k over the lease buyout price, not interested in playing the game!
The letters from the car dealers that I received have long since been trashed, but after seeing your note, I remembered that they also contacted me by email and I still had some in the save folder…
This one (below) was sent last August, since then the offer has gone up…
But like I wrote previously, it would only be worth it if I wanted to get rid of these vehicles and did not plan on replacing them…
Also, concerning the new cars, there is scuttlebutt that the various computer chip users are having to use older, slower, and less capable chips due to the shortage.
Just what we need, car computers that tell you your engine is running hot after it overheats, the tire pressure is low after the tire has gone flat, and so forth…
But it might not be all bad, perhaps the radio would only play songs from the '50s, '60s, and '70s.
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Seen errors like that before on this forum before this chip shortage.