There’s no simple equation. If reliability is crucial for you and you have a deep wallet, now might be the perfect time. If you drive through areas every day wherein a breakdown might cost you your life, like Roxbury, south Chicago, Liberty City, or Harlem, It’s probably time.
If you’re a normal working fella, for whom breaking down is an inconvenience but not life-threatening, and you maintain the vehicle well and don’t abuse it, you should easily get 250-300K out of this car before anything major breaks.
If your wife is in full blossom with your third little one and this is your family car, a minivan will be a Godsend. If she’s pregnant with your fourth, it’s a necessity.
Most of my car changes over the years have been due to life changes. I live where a breakdown is just an inconvenience and help is just a phone call away, and I buy vehicles with reputations for reliability and longevity, so I can go hundreds of thousands of miles with a vehicle… and I do. Your situation might be entirely different.