I think the average length of ownership is around 7years, but there is a wealth of residual value available at 5 years is all. For ice somewhere between 40-50 percent of original cost.
Now keeping a car for 20 years, you will be hard pressed to find much information. My own situation would indicate scrap value after that length of time in th $100-500 range, not thousands. After that length of time repairs and maintenance equal or exceed any initial acquisition cost-and I have argued doesn’t make a spit of difference if the car is bought new or used. I have kept meticulous records for over a million miles.
My only point was an ev at this point is a total crap shoot as to operating costs over any extended period whether 5 years, 10 years or gulp 20 years. Just too many unknowns and based on bs environmental religious zealots. Why the long face John? You’ve got your jets and ketchup stock.
$1,270 per month, out of your pocket
vs.
$678 for Corolla
Is not an " intangible and a subjective decision"
You use less gasoline, but burn more coal and create more nuclear waste. Solar panels do not appear out of thin air, have a relatively short life (a hail storm recently destroyed a field of them) and speed the filling of landfills.
The math is easy, wind and solar cannot replace coal and nuke…period.
I’m not against EV’s, I think in big cities, with nightmarish traffic jams, EV’s make sense for clean air. But this 100% switch to EV’s for everyone isn’t going to be the “Green Dream” everyone is so in love with.
10 year old Ford EV’s are going to the landfill; Ford isn’t, nobody is, stocking replacement batteries.
An EV has half the potential life of an ICE…we’ll need to build and dispose of 2x as many cars…Green?
Imagine the overhead in producing, storing, 10’s of millions of replacement batteries. You really can’t build and store them as they die simply with age and would require charging while in storage. Ford already proved it unprofitable even on a small scale by not offering replacements in 10 year old cars.
Tesla is a financial train wreck, kept alive by government largess in form of rebates and low interest rates. Much cheaper to buy any other EV or ICE vehicle. Tesla’s early advantages, and no real competition, are fading while their costs are increasing. As people stated, the leaf is $15,000 cheaper than a Model 3.
If, and I say when, Tesla heads into bankruptcy, who will build and stock those Tesla replacement batteries for the next 10 or 20 years? Absolutely incredible to listen to people that actually believe 15 years from now they’ll be able to buy a replacement Model 3 battery for less than it costs today…nope, sorry, that’s a fantasy.
I would not hold my breath waiting for Tesla to file for bankruptcy. Admittedly, their stock is overvalued and has been for a long time. I think this is because some people like the idea of investing in a company that is focused on the next century rather than the next quarter’s profits. Also, Tesla looks attractive on paper because they are new and nonunion so they don’t have billions in pension liability staking claim on future earnings. Also, I would step in front of a freight train before I would bet against Elon Musk.
As for the current topic: My wife and I drive mid-size BMWs (9 and 18 yrs old) and our daughter drives a four-year old Tesla Model 3. I told her that when she is ready to replace it (probably with another Tesla as this one has been flawless), we would like first crack at hers.
Renewable energy sources can replace coal. Not overnight, but IMO they could in 10 to 15 years. This can’t be done without backup and coal is a bad choice for that task. Natural gas generators can be turned on very quickly and are the most reasonable alternative to augment wind and solar.
In 2020 electricity generation by coal was 19% of the total. Nuclear was 19.5%, hydroelectric was 7 %, wind and solar were 12.3%, and natural gas was 40.4%. This is documented in the reference below. It’s not hard to imagine a bit more than doubling wind/solar generation in a bit over 10 years. The same reference shows a graph of electrical power sources. Coal is down dramatically since 2005 while wind, solar and natural gas increased the most. Natural gas burns cleaner than coal and that’s a reasonable substitute as wind and solar increase.
A bunch of math concerning miles driven and kWh necessary per mile, informs us that to switch all gas vehicles to EV, you would need to generate an additional 1,640,000,000,000kWh of electricity.
A 20Kw commercial turbine is 33% efficient (this is realistic) and can generate 15Mwh per year.
1,640,000,000,000 / 15,000kWh = 109,333,333 additional, very large, turbines need to go online…
The numbers for solar are even worse…
Edit:
A single 20Kw turbine requires 40 to 70 acres of land.
4.3 to 7.6 million acres would be required.
That’s 6,718 to 11,875 square miles restricted to “windy enough” locations…
Why do you possibly think that we’re going to switch from gas vehicle to EV over night. To think that is just plain WRONG. We’ll have ice vehicles for DECADES and DECADES. I won’t see it in my lifetime. Maybe my grandkids (who aren’t born yet) will.
You’re trying to predict a future event without ever knowing what the future lies. 30 years ago someone made the prediction of how much power extra power would be needed if every single household owned ONE computer. It was estimated we’d have to double our electric output. Fast forward to today…each household as at least 3 computers and the increase electrical use by these computers is less then 5% increase from 30 years ago. Computers today use significantly less power than computers 30 years ago and at the same time doing 10,000 times more work. People switching to LED lights easily offset the increase in the number of computers in everyone’s home.
Your crystal ball needs an upgrade.
Your original strawman argument is absurd. A Corolla is a basic people mover vehicle. The Tesla S3 is more in line with a BMW or Audi. So try again with more realistic comparisons and you’ll see your mistake.
Ford is ending all ICE production/sales in the EU by 2026.
Ford is targeting 2030 in the USA due to unions not playing along, but Ford is committed to ZERO ICE globally.
Investment in oil/gas is a losing proposition. If you think $5/gal for gas today is expensive, you ain’t seen nothing yet. Gasoline production volumes are going to rapidly fade and cost per gallon will go to the moon. $20, $30, $40 per gallon are in your lifetime…if you can even find it.
Who is going to invest $BILLIONS in the production of gasoline when Ford is promising 100% EV in the USA by 2030? Today, would you invest in opening a gas station or a charging station?
Sure, they’re saying this now, but realistically I don’t see it ever happening. I think that what will ultimately occur is that people who can use a short-range “city car” will buy an EV like a Nissan Leaf or the now-discontinued Mitsubishi i-MIEV, while still keeping a gasoline-powered vehicle for longer trips and hauling large loads. People who have no use for “city car” will continue to own gasoline-powered vehicles exclusively.
The idea that gasoline-powered vehicles will disappear is so much wishful thinking, and the politicians suggesting such a thing are all nearing the end of their lives anyways…so they won’t be around to deal with the fallout from their “mandates”.
Ford is a publicly-traded corporation, whose fiduciary duty is to its shareholders, and as such, they will continue to build and sell whatever customers are willing to buy. Jumping on the “green revolution” might make great P.R. but if the cars don’t sell, the share price tanks, and then big investors demand changes.
Park an S3 next to a Corolla and I’ll bet you the majority would favor the looks of the Corolla. Tell them the S3 is 2x the price of the Corolla and 99% buy the Corolla.
The S3 does nothing the Corolla can’t do; the S3 is just a basic people mover too. Interior room, physical size, etc., are all in line with the Corolla…the Corolla has better fit and finish to boot!
The only real difference is Musk’s marketing team did a stellar job of convincing people to lay out $45,000 for what is essentially a $22,000 Corolla.
Car and Driver
Tesla 3
Lows Highway driving saps range, all-digital interior may irk some drivers, fit-and-finish could be better.
Looking at two different vehicles is NOT the same as DRIVING two different vehicles. There’s a world of difference between the drivability and comfort of those vehicles. The Corolla isn’t on the same level…not even close. I’ve driven both. Have you?
Not likely, IMHO…