WhaWho, I missed your earlier comment. Thanks for the laugh.
Truth is, it isn’t what I DO that worries me, it’s the interpretation of the monitoring bodies of what I do that worries me.
Besides, I’d hate the thought of getting a robo-generated speeding ticket in the mail every time I accidentally exceeded the speed limit by 10mph. Speed traps are bad enough. Imagine having our driving constantly monitored? It could even eventually get to the point where we could be cited for turning on our directional too close to a turn. Or for forgetting to fasten our seatbelt. The technology already exists.
I might sound paranoid, but we’re rapidly approaching the reality of our behaviors being constantly monitored. It ain’t paranoia if they’re really watching.
When I was in 6th grade, I remember going to the Chevrolet dealer to look at the new 1953 Chevrolet. I dreamed about what cars would be like when I would turn 16. I guessed that the cars would be powered by atomic energy. I thought all cars would have styling similar to the 1953 Studebaker Starlight coupe. I thought all cars would be air conditioned as air conditioning was introduced in the 1953 Oldsmobile, Buick Super and Roadmaster and Cadillac cars.
Well, almost all cars are still powered by an internal combustion engine, the styling of today’s cars isn’t as pleasing as that 1953 Studebaker Starlight coupe, and air conditioning didn’t become common on the smaller cars until at least the late 1970s.
Nash offered a seat belt for the passenger side in 1950 and Ford pushed safety features in its 1956 model. The Crosley had disk brakes on the front wheels in 1950, yet we were well into the 1970s when disk brakes became standard on most cars. I’m not holding my breath for big changes in 2020.
I remember reading Popular Science magazines in the '60s that predicted flying cars and backpack rockets as common modes of transport. They both technically exist, but certainly not as common modes of transport. It’s just as well… imagine the rush hour accidents!
With as little as we drive it will be a 2013 Elantra GT with about 40,000 miles. More if I can talk my partner into some decent road trips. Fewer if I keep feeling so cruddy. Well, one of the main reasons we bought it was so we wouldn’t need a hospital to get me to the ER. We already had to do that every and we’re car shopping a couple of weeks later. It’s even a nice, bright ambulance red (OK, it is Lava Red). The ER is less than a mile away, so if that is all we use it for, plus the monthly Bello run, we could have this car into the next century. My mother probably puts no more on hers.
I definitely think car sharing will be big, in various forms. For a decade we relied on ZipCar for all shorter trips and even some trips of over three days. We used normal rental cars beyond that. The other system, where people make their car available times of the day they don’t use it seems more problematic. It’s too hard to know who damaged your car or left it filthy. The cars share services have detailer who clean cars when they can, and if there is damage, they can go after the suspect party. ZipCar has a more varied fleet than they used to, including luxury cars, pickups, and vans, though most are still practical compacts, often hatchbacks. If we didn’t need a private ambulance in our garage, we’d still be relying on them. They run a good service. Then there are cabs and Lyft and others for impromptu travel in the city. I ride about one a week.
So, my car of 2020 might be the car I already have, or it might be a variety of services that meet the same need, including car share services like ZipCar, conventional rental cars, shuttles (a big subject in San Francisco), cabs, and cab alternatives like Lyft and others. Even the infrequent ambulance.
A totally agree with you! 2020 is a very short time. But the question is more about what can be developed now and introduced in the cars in 2020 ( or until 2024, it may let us more space).
More powerful and functional computers will make for continued refinements and improvements to the standard internal combustion motor.
There will be more hybrids in the fleet, and virtually all cars will have the auto shut off and restart feature to reduce fuel use at idle.
The AC and other components of the car will not rely on the gas motor and belts for power. The power steering will be electric. The AC compressor will be driven by an electric motor. This will allow the AC to work even when the motor is in shut down mode.
Eventually the AC system will change over to a “heat pump” system so either cool or warm air can be provided by the same system. The conventional AC compressor we have used in auto for years is a big energy drain and technology improvements mean it is on the way out. This technology will show up in a few cars by 2020, but will be mainstreamed by 2030.
There will be photo cells on the roof to recharge batteries via solar power. All the lights will be LED to reduce loads on the battery. Fan motors will be redesigned to move air with less electricity. By 2030 cars will use much less electricity to move at highway speeds allowing solar panels to provide a lot of power, to recharge the main batteries, and a small hydrogen unit can provide enough power to keep moving on long road with few stops. You won’t need to plug in a car at night, but it will still be all electric.
Much of the mpg improvement will be in more efficient transmissions and differentials. A few % improvement will mean a lot of fuel saved over the 200K mile life of the car.
A lot more plastic body parts, and aluminum frames and body panels. A few hundred less pounds adds up to a lot of fuel saved over the years and 200K miles. Cars won’t look much different, but will be significantly lighter.
The interiors will feature more electronic gear. The past featured better sound systems. In 2020 it is about connectivity, screen size, and functional controls that work without being too complex. The sun visor will become a wide screen HD+ panel for watching movies with awesome sound via a subwoofer and 10+ speakers. Of course the driver can’t watch or … Distracted driving will become even a more significant issue. By 2030 this will no longer be a problem as you set the 'auto driver" and the driver just watches TV like the other passengers and the car drives itself.
One advancement I would like to see is a more active speed control device. I use my cruise control when ever I possible to control unintended speeding. But, in areas where speed limits suddenly change, you still have to be aware. My gps shows all area speeds, so a cruise control that could be set to lower speed or shut it off when you approach a lower speed area would be a worth while feature sold you could choose to engage it. I think it should be a choice feature connected to your car gps but worth the effort in reducing speeding.
Btw, I have no problem with constantly monitoring a cars location and speed, if I’m the one with the choice for monitoring. I would like that feature in a car I allowed my kids to drive or tracking friends nd relatives on long trips if they are aware and want it too. Now, there is little control by the user in these monitoring devices and I don’t know how clearly that is explained to the consumer who buys the car which to me, is the biggest problem ; loss of privacy and not being informed so I can make a choice. So, I am just as paranoid !
OBDIII will have been in production for a few years already with the most predominant error code being “this car has performed an illegal operation and will be shut down. Want details??” Followed by a code similar to the following- 0x10A45BC32562D
ASIMO will be your chauffeur while you sip coffee and text to your heart’s content.
Reports will be commonplace that hackers took over control of a car, forced the owner to drive to the nearest ATM and transfer funds to their account before releasing control of the car back to the owner.
Cars will be outfitted with the mandatory “dope slapper” so if you go postal at the McDonalds drive thru at 10 am because they wouldn’t serve you nuggets, you automatically get a dope slap to the face.
One feature I wouldn’t be surprised to see at least bandied about is using something other than a camshaft to actuate valves.
Backstory–you can effectively optimize a cam (lift, duration, overlap) for a single rpm, and a car requires operation over a range of RPMs. Away from ideal, emissions go up and economy goes down. Additionally, the “perfect” valve motion would be nearly binary full open/closed…and such would require very aggressive ramps on the cam, wearing the cam quickly and introducing power losses as the cam fights the spring tension. Finally, the high pressures of metal-on-metal requires the use of anti-wear oil additives that adversely impact cat life.
Given all that–and the fact that alternatives to cams are already in place in F1 racing–I wouldn’t be surprised to see an alternate actuation mechanism in use in a concept car by 2020…and in on the road by 2024???
Features on a car in 2020? Look at the 2010 S class Mercedes; that’ll give you a clue as to what will likely be on most cars by then.
Backup cameras are, what, mandated by 2016? I could almost see a forward facing camera to aid in parking.
LEDs will probably be available for headlights
Blind spot monitoring sensors more prevalent
Smaller turbo charged engines
Dual clutch automatics and/or more CVT transmissions