Puzzler of 02/18/2012: use Bayes' theorem: P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B)

The Show
41

Barkydog wrote:
No drawing cards from a bag, no nothing else, only 2 cards can satisfy the option of showing a red side! 50/50 chance.

I’ll probably regret getting involved here, but let me just make one statement. Just because two things can happen doesn’t mean there’s a 50-50 chance of each. Today you’ll either get hit by a bus or you won’t. Is there a 50-50 chance of each? That’s where you’re going wrong in your logic.

42

@lioncar–in fact, if someone bets even money with the stranger that emerges from the shadows, the proabiltiy the person betting with the stranger will lose is 2/3.