I remember how great everyone thought the economy was in 2005. When I mentioned to friends that the increase in bankruptcies in California and the mortgages that seemed to be written on wild dreams by local buyers worried me many laughed it off as being a pessimist. But we again see many getting excited that 401ks have taken another move upward while they overlook the renewal of unrestricted trading in corporate default swaps. I paid attention to Brooksley Born years ago but the geniuses on Wall St and their friends in D.C. told her to quit interfering with the men in charge.
Look at Mike’s reference. BLS is the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the Department on Labor.
If you like today’s economy, you should recognize that it didn’t just start a year and a half ago. As the BLS data shows, the economy steadily improved as lending opened up again. Before lending markets became unfrozen, the only money available was from the US Governement. Without that , a lot more businesses would have folded and unemployment would probably be much higher even now. Of course, you might not have vehicles from GM, Ford, or Chrysler for sale, and the hundreds of thousands of people working for them or their suppliers might be looking to you for a handout. A lot of other businesses would have closed, too. That’s no exaggeration.
OK, have it your way. The second chart is BLS. For brevity we’ll just take one month in mid year, June. 2008 5% unemployment, 2009 9.5, 2010 9.4, 2011 9.1, 2012 8.2, 2013 7.5,
2014 6.1, 2015 5.3, 2016 4.9, then 2017 4.3, and 2018 for May 3.8. Right away in 2009 we were at 9.5%, sure blame it on Bush, but took six years to cut it in half. And for 2018 its about 1/3 of what it was in 2009. So however you want bend it, I’d say we’re doing a lot better.
Of course there will be some companies and industries up or down in any vibrant economy. In our little hamlet though, there are three companies that are now underway with major expansions. And they all have “now hiring” signs. That didn’t happen a few years ago.
The next generations won’t care at all what the unemployment rate was in June 2019. They will care a whole lot whether or not we did anything about the climate. We are close to it being more economical to also be environmentally sensible, but I don’t claim we are there yet. For now we are hoping most people are willing give up a little today for the long term common good. Carbon fee and dividend will help persuade the others.
It was about a hundred years ago that Svante Arrhenius derived the equations for how much heat would be transmitted through a given amount of carbon dioxide. One of the first things he did with it was calculate that if the CO2 concentration went from 250ppm to 500ppm, the world temperature would rise 5 degrees C. We are right on track for it. While climatologists and ice-core scientists are doing some elegant work, we actually do not need them to know that global warming is happening.
Who would dare argue with Arrhenius from 100 years ago? I’m just glad I was born late enough for the glacier in Minnesota to be melted and I plan to sell before it comes back.
How ‘bout we bring this back on topic before the glacier returns?
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+1 to this point!
If the past is of any indication of the likely future, the flat “carbon tax” will likely increase the gap between Hummer commuters and Nissan Leaf commuters.
The alternative is to make a progressive tax, like some(?)/most(?) Europe has, it will push for dumping big-displacement engines in favor of hybrids or turbocharged ICEs, but it will be a mess in the transition, as it usually is.
Maybe where you are. Companies around here have been having a very difficult find workers. Summer resorts in particular. A few resorts had to drastically cut services and guests because they can’t find enough workers.
The economy today is based on what happened under Obama. As for now it’s OK. But let’s see what happens next year. The tax cut didn’t have the effect that was being pushed. Instead it did EXACTLY what leading economists predicted. Instead of hiring more people…companies took that money and bought back their own stock and give massive dividends. First quarter of 2018 was the biggest stock buy-back in US history. Great for wealthy stock holders…lousy for employees.
http://time.com/money/5267940/companies-spending-trump-tax-cuts-stock-buybacks/
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Science is difficult. Mockery is simple. That is why there are more mockers than scientists, and why mockers are sometimes more respected. What part of his calculations do you question?
Oh never mind. Back from Econ talk and climate change talk to Car Talk.
When the economy takes a big dump again, that will be a great opportunity to buy a new car. Gasser or electric as you choose. They might even have a program to buy back your old car and crush it again, although don’t hold your breath.
Comrade Bing signing off
Now is a great time to buy a car. Not an SUV, but cars are not selling well and you should get good discounts.