Thanks for posting that. I’m looking for more detailed statistics. That graph telling us that the average age of vehicles 12.5 doesn’t do much good since it doesn’t tell us what portion of the vehicles are younger than 12.5 year old. 40% of the fleet could be <12.5 and 60% >12.5. Cars often stay on the road for 20 years, so the statistics for today are heavily influenced by how cars were built 20 years ago.
It is also influenced by the economy and interest rates. Many people don’t wait until their old car breaks down to get a new one.
I think the lack of increase in the age of light trucks is mostly due to new vehicles sales of trucks increasing significantly versus cars. It doesn’t mean that the longevity of cars is increasing versus trucks.
Right around cash for clunkers car quality seemed to go down. That was 13 years ago, so we’re not done with seeing the effects of that yet. If cars from that time were made to last 15 years / 180,000 miles, then the effects of that won’t peak until 2025.
Also, if a vehicle has the faults that I mentioned, it doesn’t always mean that it will have a shorter life on the road. It can just mean that the total cost of ownership will increase. If a 6 year old car needs a $4000 transmission replacement, people are going to pay it. If the vehicle is in an accident and the cost of repair is much higher than in the past, insurance will cover it and the car will stay on the road, or they won’t fix it and keep driving it.
Source: Average Age of Cars & Trucks by Household Income and Vehicle Type over Time | Wolf Street
That graph has some good information in it. It says that in 2017 4% of households had 15 year old car from 2002. In 2009, 3% of households had a 15 year old car from 1995. So we can conclude that the 2002 model year was better for car longevity than the 1995 model year. This isn’t just due to how long a car lasts and how much it costs to repair. It has to do with the economy and the cost a never vehicle as well. If the cost of buying a new vehicle in 2017 is higher than in 2009, that will push people toward keeping an older vehicle. The consumer perceved difference in quality from 1995 and 2002 was probably minimal, so that wouldn’t cause people to hang on to older cars. But I think the difference in quality, price, and available features on new cars from 2002 to 2009 saw a much larger change than 1992 to 2002, so this could have caused consumers to hang on to older cars.
edit: The 2009 graph shows that there was a boom of newer cars from 2001 to 2008. Looking at the 2017 graph, we can see that the 2001 to 2008 boom shifted right 8 years, creating a bubble of older cars of model years 2001 to 2008 in 2017.
