Lets go over the cliff

General Discussion
321

Wow, I didn’t realize that tourism has taken off in the PI. It was the location for the last season of “Survivor”. If you watched that show, they did some ariel shots of some of the island groups. I remember being on an Aircraft Carrier preparing for the fall and evacuation of Saigon as we cruised through these Islands to pick up the big Air Force Jolly Greens (HH-53). Standing on Vultures Row on the 010 level (about 140’ above sea level) as the big boat maneuvered between these islands was an unforgettable sight.

I have been to beaches in Virginia, California, Bahamas, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hawaii and Singapore, none are even close to those in Subic Bay, and those are not the best beaches in the PI.

322

@keith The power consumption needed for wind generated turbines is not monitored, so the output is great, but given the power usage to generate that power is provided to the turbine, not from the turbine.
Among the wind turbine functions that use electricity are the following:†

yaw mechanism (to keep the blade assembly perpendicular to the wind; also to untwist the electrical cables in the tower when necessary) -- the nacelle (turbine housing) and blades together weigh 92 tons on a GE 1.5-MW turbine

blade-pitch control (to keep the rotors spinning at a regular rate)

lights, controllers, communication, sensors, metering, data collection, etc.

heating the blades -- this may require 10%-20% of the turbine's nominal (rated) power

heating and dehumidifying the nacelle -- according to Danish manufacturer Vestas, "power consumption for heating and dehumidification of the nacelle must be expected during periods with increased humidity, low temperatures and low wind speeds"

oil heater, pump, cooler, and filtering system in gearbox

hydraulic brake (to lock the blades in very high wind)

thyristors (to graduate the connection and disconnection between generator and grid) -- 1%-2% of the energy passing through is lost

magnetizing the stator -- the induction generators used in most large grid-connected turbines require a "large" amount of continuous electricity from the grid to actively power the magnetic coils around the asynchronous "cage rotor" that encloses the generator shaft; at the rated wind speeds, it helps keep the rotor speed constant, and as the wind starts blowing it helps start the rotor turning (see next item); in the rated wind speeds, the stator may use power equal to 10% of the turbine's rated capacity, in slower winds possibly much more

using the generator as a motor (to help the blades start to turn when the wind speed is low or, as many suspect, to maintain the illusion that the facility is producing electricity when it is not,‡ particularly during important site tours) -- it seems possible that the grid-magnetized stator must work to help keep the 40-ton blade assembly spinning, along with the gears that increase the blade rpm some 50 times for the generator, not just at cut-in (or for show in even less wind) but at least some of the way up towards the full rated wind speed; it may also be spinning the blades and rotor shaft to prevent warping when there is no wind§

http://www.aweo.org/windconsumption.html

323

There are designs for nuclear reactors,that can use the high level waste and"spent" fuel rods that will safely burn the material,there are self contained and very little incidental high level waste is produced-there are enough " spent " fuel rods and high level waste for a thousand years power generation.Now,waste or resource?'
We live in a radioactive world even the potassium in the bananas you eat contains a small amount of natural radioactivity,as far as a jet liner into a reactor dome,probaly wouldnt hurt a thing and the terrorists know this,thats probaly why it hasnt happened’I dont like radioactive things either,but if they gave me a nice house and free power I would live next door to a nuclear power plant,lets see werent the Japanese reactors an american design? and the only reason they exploded was a build up of Hydrogen gas that should have been vented and the power plant design at Chernobyl went out with Enrico Fermi…
Never underestimate the permenate harm that coal mining has caused,incidentally the use of coal has released a lot of arsenic,low level radioactivity and not to mention CO2 into the biosphere. This is totally off subject,but remember the Biblical prophecy about the star named " Wormwood" poisoning a lot of the Earths water? “Chernobyl” is Russian for “Wormwood”-Kevin
PS. I was that nuclear reactors are built on faultlines for a reason,go figure-ever here of the China syndrome?

324

Your link is clearly biased against wind energy. Most of its examples are demonstration units that are not installed at an optimum location. There also seemed to be a mixing of technologies when discussing the various types of consumption.

Some early windmills with simple synchronous AC motor/generators would draw power from the grid to spin the blades when the wind wasn’t blowing. These are only effective in locations with a fairly constant wind flow.

The only time the turbines draw power from the grid is when they are not producing power a surplus. wind farms are located where the wind blows fairly constantly. The farm I worked at drew power through the three phase transformer at the base so I don’t know how much it drew when the wind was down, but the figure I got for the annual capacity was based on 20 hours per day, 350 days per year, which at that location was pretty conservative. The wind was always blowing, and always from the same direction. In fact the turbines were more likely to be shut down for too much wind, but that didn’t happen very often.

We (the company I worked for) also provided transformers for the 1.5 MW turbines your article mentioned. With these, there was a separate transformer that provided the exciting current and the other needs, but it wasn’t all that big so I think the amount of consumption claimed in your link is way overblown. I don’t have the figures though.

Turbines in Texas and California do need all that much additional heating or de-icing. The ones in Utah may need some more power for that, but there are places in Utah that also have an almost constant wind so the can generate enough power to de-ice themselves.

Most of the big clipper now have their own substation that can remove power from the turbines when the wind conditions are not right. They can park the blades and go to sleep for a couple of hours. As for jacking the blades, they lock in a position that allows the wind to turn them very slowly, even in high winds.

325

When the public is not given all the information they can and will fill in the blanks to suit them. So the wind mill operators have calculated that the rumors and speculation are less damaging than the facts it appears.

326

Rod, I am not sure what the problem is but at the wind farm, I was inspecting the transformers after installation. Occasionally we had conflicts with the GE people working on their turbines and they were a pretty secretive lot. Our biggest conflict was that we would have the cover off and they would pull up and plug in one of their generators to the inverter, a really big safety hazard for us. 690 volts to them is 34,500 volts to us.

Building a wind farm is a lot like building a house. You have a primary contractor, but most of the actual work is done by subcontractors. Only a few sites will have all the equipment built by one company and the only company that I know of that is capable of providing all the equipment in GE. Unfortunately for them and fortunate for us was that a lot of their equipment was way more expensive. The only site that I know is all GE is in New Jersey.

Right now one of their biggest concerns is the loss of proprietary information and that may be why some of the information that should be available is not. This is pretty common for any new technologies. As a transformer manufacturer, we didn’t have to deal with that too much as transformers have been around for so long that there just isn’t much proprietary information left in that field, but if you visit one of our plants, you still have to sign a non-discloser form before you can take the tour.

327

My cynicism of all things political leaves me no alternative but to doubt the supporters of wind as I doubt the supporters of ethanol. There is too much “under the table” relative to the benefits for most of US in Congressional deals.

If windmills are truly efficient they would be stand alone power sources and an array would be dedicated to pumping and desalinating water all along the west coast. As they are currently, they can be compared to adding a 4’6" 10 year old with a broken leg as a 7th pallbearer. Their benefit is questionable.

328

Wind mills as we know them may not ultimately be where wind power settles. There are lots of other designs out there that could take hold that appear as nothing more then towers to the casual observer. We WILL eventually work it out as there is too much energy around us in wind, wave and tital to just give a nod and fire up another nuke. The computer will come up with something even if our feeble little minds can’t now. Keep the faith ; just 25 more years before singularity takes hold. By then, all our greatest dreams or biggest nightmares will begin to take old…slowly at first.

329

Dag,what is singularity?-Kevin

330

It will happen, just a matter of time. Singularity is just a name given to a projected point in time. It’s not hard to understand but the ramifications can be mind boggling. Look how rapidly things like the different generations hand held electronic devices are emerging. Exponential growth at it’s finest.

331

Thank you-Kevin (I think V V is right) Lets hope this “HAL” or “Colossus” is not ego centric.Tower of Babel,End of days?

332

Y2K came and went, Comet Kahoutec slipped by with little notice, then recently the Mayan calendar was proven to be in error, but we have Singularity to look forward to now. I often watch the Apocalypse channel and they seem fixed on extraterrestrial threats. Maybe some networks are part of a conspiracy. Artificial intelligence may be taking control of the airways now. But Fox News and Rush Limbaugh could certainly use some artificial intelligence… Or just any kind of intelligence.

333

This is definitely some food for thought. One of the first things that it got me thinking about was 1984, the book and the year. I first read the book about 20 years before the year, every one was reading that book and there was a real fear in society over it. Somehow 1984 came and went without 1984 becoming reality.

In the history of life on earth, there have been life forms that became so dominant that they changed their environment, and so successful that they ate everything else, ultimately resulting in their demise. Humans are one this track right now, but unlike previous life forms, we have the capability to avoid this outcome. That capability is awareness and it is the result of intelligence.

If singularity does come to pass, I don’t think it will result in out annihilation. It will certainly have an effect though. You need to look at the thought process. For example, we were on a path of destruction of habitat for all other forms of life on earth, until we realized that if we continued on this path, we could not survive either. We depend on all these other life forms, either directly or indirectly and we are now becoming aware that some life forms that we may consider useless to us now may hold the key to our future survival.

Now back to the thought process, development of new ideas involves gathering as much existing knowledge as possible. Intelligence builds on knowledge. Artificial intelligence will also build on existing knowledge, so it start off with the knowledge that all things are interconnected and interdependent, therefor AI will realize that it needs us for its own existence. The downside is that if singularity does happen, we will no longer be the top life form on the planet. Something will have dominion over us.

Of course, there is a large majority of the human population that already believes in a higher life form, a greater intelligence, God. In fact, the author of the wikipedia articles description of singularity is virtually the same as the biblical description of God.

Most of our communication is digital now, controlled by computers. If AI gets a foothold, then all our news and information will come from AI, which means that it will begin to control our thinking. It could end up electing itself to congress and president, then appoint itself to all the positions on the Supreme Court. That could be a good thing as far as settling the National debt and even making much better decisions for the environment, but I digress.

If AI happens, will we know it. It takes over all out sources of information so how would any of us know whether the news we see on the TV is actually from a human reporter or an AI generated one. In fact how do any of you know if there is actually a keith on this web site. Maybe keith is just a bunch of one’s and zero’s on the Car Talk server who is working to sway a small part of public thinking. well maybe keith’s occasional misspellings and other blunders prove that he is real, or is that part of teh plan.

334

Rod, just to add a little more here, from you selections of things to fear that have come and passed, you did not mention 1984, which leads me to believe that you were not self aware in 1963 (old enough to know what was going on around you). In 1963, there really was a widespread fear of 1984, it fact it was second only to the atomic bomb.

As we got closer to 1984, the fear subsided because it was becoming clear that Big Brother was not going to happen. That book really got people to start questioning the government and its officials. If that book hadn’t been written, I doubt that the protests over the Vietnam war would not have happened. It opened people eyes to the potential consequences of blindly following the leaders.

Its quite possible that if the book was never written, then 1984 might have actually happened. This could be a case of the observer affect changing the outcome.

335

To heck with Nostradamus being the great prognosticator, Arnold Shawarzenagger and the terminator could be the “real” thing.

336

I don’t know exactly how self aware I was when I read 1984 but it was earlier than 1963 I believe. I do recall that the book and author were not highly regarded by the teachers in my school. We are in some ways living out the predictions of George Orwell. Cameras are everywhere and somewhere someone is paid to sit and watch every move that is made, often from more than one angle. The move Metropolis is very telling if you look beyond the spectacle.

337

Haven’t seen that movie. 1984 was on the recommended reading list when I went to school. You are right that some aspects of George Orwell are coming true. Camera’s are everywhere, but I don’t agree that all are being watched by someone all the time, most are only watched after the fact to find evidence for a crime or wrongdoing.

However, they are all connected to a computer somewhere and most computers are connected to the internet, so if singularity happens, then something with decision making powers will be watching all the time. That is disturbing. Maybe George just got the year wrong.

BTW, did you see the Nova show about Watson?

338

I’m pretty sure there is a real Keith out there somewhere. Just think of this though, there are many people that would welcome a 1984 world as a way to control the people around them to a state of conformance. People should not be allowed to . . . (fill in the blank, smoke, drink coke, hunt, drink, become overweight, eat unhealthy foods, drive big cars or trucks, use gas, lawn mowers) and on and on and on.

339
Y2K came and went

Don’t make it sound like it went without a hitch. There were very few problems…but a lot of the “No Problems” had to do with the fact that companies spent well over 3 billion dollars fixing the y2k problem. Some companies started working on the problem as early as 1995. It could have been devastating for some companies if they weren’t proactive. One manufacturing company in 1995 decided to change the clock on they’re computers to 2000…and the plant completely shut down. It cost them a few million to make sure they were fine when 2000 did come.

340

Forecasts of calamities and pervasive government intrusion have abounded for many years. Most of these writers were British (Aldous Huxley, etc) and forecasted that this was an irreversible process.

The fall of communism was proof that even Russians realized that big government does not work. Soviet citizens with small plots of land produced as much food as all the collective farms combined. The quality of manufactured goods was dismal.

Then Deng Chow Ping in China in 1978 losened up things in China acknowledging that Chinese citizens acting on behalf of themselves would be much more successful. To be rich is glorious! was exactly what the industrious Chinese people wanted to hear, and the rest is hitory.

The real danger is our political correctness and the Obama administration and the left wing media (including most of Hollywood) trying to regiment Americans into “group think” without the severe punishment of the 1984 scene. This is intellectual brainwashing of the finest order and appears quite innocuous, until someone says publicly something quite true and innocuous (like being gay is not normal) and get punished for it. If there was no political correctness and the big 3 media were totally objective, we would probably not need the Fox Channel. Free speech is a fundamental right, but the goverment now is defining what free speech actually is!!

The United Nations does this on a much larger scale by trying to make countries and their people feel guilty on environmental and |human rights issues. The US was villified for not signing the Kyoto Protocol, even though this document had huge holes and shortcomings.