The percentage increase is a long therm statistical average, Stock market and weather predictions long term are guesswork at best.
“Stock market and weather predictions long term are guesswork at best.”
To some extent, that is true, but statistically, the S&P 500’s median annualized 25 year return is 12.98%.
At its best, the annualized return has been as high as 17.25%, and at its worst, the annualized return over 25 years was 9.28%.
IMHO, 9.28% is not a terrible “worst”.
Yeah, it’s kind of the opposite. Short term weather forecasts can be pretty good, but no way to guess the weather in 5 years, Stocks can jump up and down short term, but long (5-10+ years) they have a good record of going up.
Cute, Jt, cute.
@VDCdriver
Statistically that is true. With over 42 million below the poverty line and payroll taxes at more then 12% of their income, if we assume that they relied completely on privatization for healthcare and retirement , what are the chances a person below the poverty level will be able to take any of his poverty wages and save. If the 12% tax were eliminated for them! would a poor person set up an investment account ? They have to save, not only enough in the stock market to secure all of their retirement, but pay their own health insurance now and save save for the astronomical fees of private insurance for the old as they age.
Social security and Medicare as we know it are intrinsically related. You can’t “give” some one Medicare at 80% and expect them to pay the final 20% if they have no retirement plan which the working poor will now not have. So, now the govts. Literally turns all this money over to the stock market while having to then secure other funds to take care of the poor as they age. The addition cost to the govt. Would be in the trillions (5) of dollars according to this web site, just to go through the transition. That debt is handed over to you and I and our income tax then…as now, no payroll tax now ! We cannot afford to drop SS and Medicare.
To a varying degree, this lack in ability to fund a full private retirement and private health insurance affects the middle class also. Though stocks look better, the returns are not guranteed and only pass SS if you voluntarily put enough in which is way beyound the means of most below the median income. Retirement funds or heating oil…good choice for the poor and low middle income.
Of course, those who are “rich” enough to support their own retirement, still look forward to Medicare because they will not be able to pay their own private insurance, regardless of how much they saved. But with out SS, Medicare coud not afford to exist with the additional drain on the general budget to pay for care for the poor. “Let them die” becomes the necessary mantra when you give any credence to people’s argument that privatization is better then SS.
Back to falling gas prices…gas prices will continue to get lower quickly, and one reason is that fuel retailers are, excuse my sentiment here, stupid. There’s a Shell station priced at 2.69, the supermarket down the block is 2.65, and the 76 down the street is 2.41. The Shell and the grocery store are making a comfortable margin, and so could the 76, but by lowering the price that much to gain gallonage, he’s screwing himself out of profit. Assuming their wholesale prices are about the same, the Shell is making .39/gallon and the 76 is making .11/gallon. Why on earth would you lower your price that much? If you want to undercut the competition, you can do it by being 10 cents lower than the next guy. Why be 30 cents lower? You’re leaving money on the table.
Gasoline has gone from being a profitable commodity to a loss leader. Fuel retailers have lost sight of the fact that there is a captive audience. Everyone needs gas and is going to buy it. A difference of 5 cents/gallon is meaningless in the budget of the average driver but makes the difference of staying in business or going broke for the guy running the corner gas station.
Zip, zip. I refuse to enter into this conversation . . . Oh heck. Growing up I don’t know that I really knew anyone truly poor. There was one guy at school maybe. The kid across the street though had kind of a run down house and his parents claimed they were poor, with five kids. They both worked though but thing is they bought a new car and a new speed boat. I loved that 59 Chevy they had. I do know though that some of the elderly were having a hard time staying afloat and that has always bothered me. All the kids though ended up pretty good and successful except my friend who ended up in jail.
I guess then what we don’t know can hurt us and does not exist. I never saw a pot hole in NY So I am against any amount of money going into the infrastructure budget to pay for anything I can’t see and that includes NY and anywhere I don’t travel
If anyone is really poor, how are they buying new cars and speed boats. No one loans them the money, so they must be paying cash. Hmmmm, money headers.
I don’t have a speed boat. Do you have a speed boat?
Well same, I have a fishing boat.
Does that count ? I know of no one who lives on our lake who is poor, no one. I have never seen a poor person running up and down the lake with a speed boat. But how would I know. I have nothing fast enough to chase them down, pull them over and ask to see their portfolio. I should wait at the landing and see what they driving for a car and if they are drinking beer with their unemployment checks.
If you’re asking those questions of people with boats and houses on the lake, your sample is not going to be representative of those on a tight budget.
No, but I’m thinking I might pick up a used canoe for family outings. But then, I’m one of those “rich guys” with a decadent Roth IRA.
A rose by any other name, dag. Income-based tax that’s paid directly into the general fund–it’s additional IRS taxes that our lovely leaders lack the stones to call by their proper name.
You’ve been shown here how equity investing TRASHES SS returns, with near 100% certainty over a 40-year span. I guess there’s no helping the willfully ignorant!
But besides the obvious wealth-creating advantages–what about creating a new, fairer USA, where wealth and corporate ownership becomes spread out amongst ever MORE folks as years go by. Investing SS funds in the stock markets would accomplish that! It seems your main beef is that there is a miniscule chance that stocks might underperfom the US Treasury on a long-term basis. I SAY, the ends are well worth the risk! (And remember, there’s always the “status-quo” risk that Social Security monies might be paid out in worthless dollars, given that we’re mimicking the Weimar Republic so well at the moment…)
“Workers of the world, max out your 401(k)s! You have nothing to lose but a 0.5% chance your investments will not appreciate!”
I agree same…but I live a sheltered life and I really don’t get to see “poor” people either. But like you and I have your respect for those who are, I commend you. I did deal with lots of poor kids and their families when I taught. Maybe things have have changed and they all drive better cars and have portfolios. But way back when, they depended upon SS as they aged. Like my dad with 5 kids, SS carried him through the tough times when the mill closed and he lost his retirement. They never had discretionary funds to develope a portfolio and were vary frugal with all of us in house. MeanJoe75fan, I just don’t know why the numbers game is so much more important then real life. I grew up fairly poor. My room was a closet and I play sports so I could take regular showers. Portfolios were the last thing on my parent’s minds. Getting through the day with meals for everyone was the first. That exta thirteen percent would never been invested in the stock market. It’s pie in the ski.
Yeah, Joe, I guess anyone who disagrees with you about the existence of people on tight budgets without money to invest will remain willfully ignorant forever. There’s just no helping us.
You need to get out more. See what the world is like. Experience more.
Well, I’ve drank Whiskey Sours at a Four Seasons. I’ve shared a 40 oz with my Wife-to-be in a housing project. I’ve rode a motorcycle on a 5,000 mile road trip. I’ve bicycled from NY state to Montreal (without, it should be noted, knowledge or permission of Border Canada). I’ve celebrated 7/4 amongst 10,000 hippies in an Arkansas forest. I learned how to cuss in Navajo. I’ve explored an abandoned silver mine. I’ve shot an 1858 Remington. I’ve made love above the treeline in Colorado. I’ve lived in a homeless shelter, violated their rules, and lived in the Nittany mountains outside State College, PA, for four months of my life.
I think I’ve “gotten out there.”
“MeanJoe75fan, I just don’t know why the numbers game is so much more important then real life.”
Okay, a new one: I’ve been chastised by a mathematician for relying too heavily on mathematics!
No, it is for choosing the math that dissregards the existence of millions of people and their purpose in life. It’s thinking that Social Security is an absolute investment and not what it says, security. A good investment portfolio chooses to include stocks that have very low yield, much lower then your average indicates but with a higher level of sevurity. But you disregard that social security is included in a complete retirement plan for the same reason by every broker I have talked to when it was my option not to. It’s the infrastructure of a good retirement plan when available, especially for those without the means to depend upon the stock market…for all their retirement.
No, it’s your total disregard for the math of those less fortunate.
An automobile is an equally poor investment. But many will buy one more expensive that is a more reliable one for the same reason…it’s the element of increased security. No, you lived with the poor out of choice, not necessity like many have done. Four months. Try a lifetime.
keep on judging joe, it ll be your turn soon enough…