I agree that the U.S. government has no reason to subsidize oil companies in this environment, they are doing just fine at the moment.
It also makes sense for oil companies to diversify into other types of energy sources.
Plug in electrics are a good idea, but if they catch on we will have to start thinking about grid capacity and how to collect road taxes. I suspect electric suppliers will offer incentives to charge plug in vehicles during off-peak hours; if everyone plugs in his car at 6PM we will have a problem.
Some areas already have time-of-pricing. Yes, it will be advantageous to plug in later, to get the lower overnight rate. A recent study done on the US electric grid shows an adequate capacity to charge a very large number of cars without having to beef up the distribution system. When plug-ins become widespread, some generating capacity will need to be added.
In Canada and cold parts of the US many cars have block heaters and the system handles these just fine.
Supply and Demand would normally achieve and maintain price equilibrium. But now, in the case of oil, as DEMAND drives up price, SUPPLY can no longer respond to the very attractive prices being offered…There are THOUSANDS of drilling rigs working 24/7 worldwide, hoping to cash in on this bonanza and a few hit pay-dirt. But overall, it’s becoming a struggle just to maintain current daily production. So for the moment, SUPPLY is constant and DEMAND continues to grow, constrained only by price…
If/when SUPPLY begins to fall off creating a permanent shortage, price will become unpredictable and unstable as the world scrambles for alternatives to oil. Those who start planning and building now will save themselves a lot of grief…
If you think millions, then tens of millions of car owners will be able to come home every night and plug their cars into a wall outlet to charge the battery, I’ve got some news for you. Our electrical grid could not even BEGIN to handle that additional load. It can barely keep up now…
By the time plug in electrics become a viable option, solar panels will probably be fairly commonplace on houses as well. I know I’d get a couple on my house if they weren’t so darned expensive right now(only place I could find that listed prices ranged from $15k to $150k for residential solar panels) Although, I’m sure portable solar panels will be available for the car, maybe a factory option or something like that.
There’s nothing wrong with solar panels except the fact that they are not cost effective at current energy prices. Current residential electric prices are in the $.05-.15 range in the U.S., at those prices the payback time on solar will be very long.
The demand by cars charging up will go up gradually, and those who charge up “off-peak” will utilize the spare capacity of the system. Those who don’t will pay a higher rate, and more generating stations will be built.
Where I live, with mostly coal fired generation, electricity will be about half the price of gasoline, so motorists will save money as well.
When electric space heating was introduced similar predictions were made, and the system was able to digest these new loads easily. Wahington state will be the place to live with cheap and reliable water power.
The avergae load in my house during the evening peak is 3000 watts with the funace running. After the dinner hour it drops to 1000 watts or less. two cars plugged in and charging could add 2000 watts and still not exceed the peak. Off-peak pricing is obviously needed.
Well, Docnick, as the old saying goes, “You can take the teacher out of the classroom, but you can’t take the classroom out of the teacher”. I would like to think that my teaching ability has not been diminished by the years.
U.S. motorists consume 388 MILLION gallons of gasoline every day…Replacing those BTU’s with coal will not be easy…Have you looked at coal prices lately?
Electric cars will be a tough sell in New England and other northern states. Claims of having a 100 mile range between battery charges usually ignores headlight, heater, a/c, sound system, wipers, all that stuff…On a cold rainy night, that voltmeter will be heading into the red zone long before 100 miles is covered…
The current problem with electric power is the the price varies by about a factor of three, depending where you live. You may be paying about $.05, but folks in new england are paying close to $.15. Also, some areas with high population density (northeast) are already up against their generation limits during peak times. Not coincidentally, these are the areas that are the most resistant to installing new generation (lots of NIMBYs).
I’m also curious how you would collect road taxes on electric vehicles, would the power companies be required to install separate metering?
In MD electricity gets cheaper after 9PM. Our dishwasher has a timer and we run it at 11PM or so. There are plenty of timers that you can plug into a receptacle in your garage to charge from 10PM to 4AM.
There will be little short term changes or little changes as long as the drivers see the situation as short term. Until they are convinced that the cost is going to continue going up for a long time to come will they start making decisions to reduce their usage. Those changes can be buying smaller, more fuel efficient cars, but we don’t do that all at once and the cars out there now will still be there for years to come. The new smaller cars will take time to become a larger % of the total. Choosing a job and a home close to each other or close to public transportation takes even longer, but does happen. So does shopping habits etc.
The best way to insure the lowest cost for fuel is to have competition in the market. Unfortunately, we have what can be considered the best diversity of petroleum companies available right now. But, they are still lumped together and ties together by the global price for the raw product. But, if a real alternative to petroleum could be found, you’d have a real revolution in energy pricing. The most promising idea I’ve seen yet has been Algae-Based Bio-Oil. Read this article: http://www.popsci.com/scitech/article/2007-07/greenest-green-fuel
My calculations show that at $.15/kilowatt hour overall power cost, the electric energy to propel the car costs about 50% of gasoline. This is mostly because of the inherent efficiency of large scale generation and the very high efficiency of the electric motor in the car.
We have to change the heating system in plug-in hybrid to make it a combination of normal engine water jacket and a small heat pump, which would be the Air Conditioner running in reverse. Otherwise, most of the advantages of the plug-in hybrid would be lost in cold weather.
Wasn’t peak oil supposed to have happened in the 70s? While your theory may have some merit, it does not take into account that technology is constantly improving, making getting to the oil that 20 or 30 years ago was thought to be unattainable, easy to get to. I would expect this trend to continue. Yes, eventually we will run out of oil, but it’s not going to happen anytime soon, certainly not in our lifetime.
That sounds about right, except I’m sure there will be road taxes collected (somehow) and there will be some losses while charging. Let’s assume the cost is 70% of gasoline, the question is how many people are going to make the investment in the vehicle and live with it’s limitations to reduce their annual fuel cost by about $1000?
" But, if a real alternative to petroleum could be found, you’d have a real revolution in energy pricing. The most promising idea I’ve seen yet has been Algae-Based Bio-Oil. Read this article: http://www…green-fuel"
True, assuming the alternative is cheaper than petro-oil. If the alternative is more expensive it will have little effect on the market.
It’s not a matter of “running out of oil,” it’s a matter of running out of cheap (easy to get) oil. There is lots of $200/barrel oil, and even more $300/barrel oil.
There’s probably even lots of $100/barrel oil that people would go after if they had confidence the prices would stay that high for a while. There worst case scenario is that they spend lots of cash to go after reserves that are only profitable at $100 and the market bubble bursts reducing prices to $75. If it was my decision, I would only be going after the $50 oil in a $100 market; what would you do?
“Aren’t most road maintenance taxes collected as property taxes? If they are not, they could be.”
Property taxes are generally collected by your county (schools etc), I guess some portion goes to county roads. The state and federal fuel taxes (about $.40/gallon in most places) are supposed to be road taxes. This is also an issue with people who use homemade “alternative fuels,” some states have a process for them to pay these taxes separately. It’s not a big deal at the moment, because it only involve the lunatic fringe, but if someone starts sell a large number of plug in cars it will have to be addressed.