Frankly mountainbike, a faith in the perfect rationality of markets is the only thing that underlies this bellief you have in how technology moves through history. That’s one thing I just find depressing in what you just said - that its the only thing under there even while you deny it/don’t recognize it. The second depressing thing is related and is your perpetual insistence on a stark divider between politics and markets, and the idea that markets, over the long run, are “pure” arbiters of what is true and correct and good regardless of power interests of actors. Of all of the ideas in the world that people think are dangerous right now, I think that one is the most dangerous. (Held up though it is by much of contemporary, professionalized Economics). And it is sustainable as an idea only by standing at a great distance the actual events of the world armed only with market ideology rather than intensive knowledge and thought of the actual churning out of history.
This may just be the point of normal impasse for us. But if you are inclined to chat more, here is a point of departure.
“gasoline…simply won out because it was the best choice.”
There are aspects of that statement that could be true once qualified in a very narrow sense. But as any global statement about our current world of transportation, I’m stuck on at least two things. First, you call it a “choice” so there must have been a decision-maker. When and where was the decision made? By whom? Second, calling it the “best” choice has to come with some criteria for what makes it the “best.” So the best for what? The goal(s) has(ve) to be specified. Its very important at this point that you don’t stand at the last half of 20th century/early 21st and take your choice criteria from there. All you’ll get is causality that runs backwards in time - which I assume you’ll agree is impossible.
Or maybe we’ll just live with impasse again and go on to discussing broken tie rods and oil changes and stuff. Which is also amusing.
Edit: We could also try this:
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Viable statement that I can easily go along with: Standing as we are at the start of the 21st century, given the way that the world has come to be in terms of transportation needs/wants for both individuals and organizations, AND given the channeling of technological development along a particular path over the last century, the petroleum fueled ICE is clearly the best option.
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Non-viable statement: standing as we were at the start of the 20th century it was clear that the petroleum fueled ICE was the best option (tho’ for what I don’t know) and inevitably came to be what we do for transportation.