Some time ago, we had this same discussion. A few new bits of information this time, but essentially the same opinions.
At that time, I wanted to know because we get postings all over the place and I happened to have an intermittent P0420
I am retired and love to do Internet research if something is important. I can’t even remember how long I spent on that project but it was many hours. There were discussions on boards; Ford PIckup boards; Chevrolet pickup boards; Dodge pickup boards. Porsche boards; Toyota boards, and lots more.
Very consistently, the number of mechanics who said they almost always had to replace the cats was very close to the number who said they almost NEVER had to replace the cat. I did not spend much time contemplating the possibility that the same mechanics always got cars with bad cats, and others always got cars with good cats.
On the surface, I had the impression that most replaced cats were actually good. But, after some thought I realized with no N for each person, I could not come to a very accurate estimate on the number of cats replaced. So, I simply concluded that it had to be at least half the cats replaced were actually good. And probably more than that. It was amazing how many people reported, like the poster on this board, that the mechanics told them P0420 meant bad cat, period.
This is totally consistent with both incompetence and greed. Dummy’s not gonna’ know his cat was okay. Hose it to 'em.
Just now, I spent maybe twenty minutes trying to find out how many replacement cats are sold every year. I did find a cost estimator, which gave a high figure of around $900 or so for parts and labor at the top end. That is much lower than posters here have reported being charged.
I just googled for how many cars in the US. There were figures all over the place. One common figure was around 136 million cars, and 110 million trucks including pickups and SUVs.
Again, lack of data. I don’t know how many of the vehicles have cats, but assume most do. Nor do I know how long an average cat lasts. If ten years, that would be 10 to 20 million cats replaced a year. I certainly hope someone can show me those figures are way high. They would indicate some billions of dollars a year just replacing cats.
And, anything over a very small error figure means car owners are being milked out of billions of dollars by replacing good cats for whatever reason.
That is why I think in the absence of a very good diagnosis like Asemaster has done, the sensors should be replaced before the cat.
Always I find when doing a research project, I find new questions. In this case, I wonder if needing a new cat is responsible for final junking out of bottom feeder older cars, just as a bad motor or transmission is at higher car values.
I agreed above that we base our opinions on our own experiences. I was wrong in agreeing. When I do major research projects I am seeking feedback from large numbers of people, not just the person posting on the topic. I know very well my knowledge is very limited.