Yep! And I’ll not be surprised to see it trundling around the sidewalks of my town before too long.
From a total number of shipping jobs perspective, I would think almost none. Unless you live next door to the factory that makes whatever you’re buying, it’s still getting to you via a truck, whether the truck picks up its load at a US factory or a shipping port. There might actually be a reduction in demand because the truck at the shipping port picks up a lot of different goods whereas the domestic truck isn’t going to traverse the whole country picking up bits of loads before heading to the store.
Being a nerd, I have. Often. Data wasn’t allowed to be a doctor not due to lack of ability but due to Federation biases. He could spend an hour learning and be a better doctor than any human. He’d be more accurate, miss less, never get tired, never slip, never do something stupid like burning his alma mater’s initials on a patient’s kidney. But Starfleet insists that doctors must spend years in medical school. Remember, this is the organization that tried to claim Data was a slave and could be killed for cybernetic research. And after Data won recognition as a sentient life form, that same organization apparently forgot that legal precedent and tried to kidnap his daughter because “the machine” shouldn’t have the raising of her.
So it’s not that Data (who we should also remember is fictional) was not capable of doing a job that a human was doing- he just wasn’t allowed to. But the Federation has also supposedly eliminated money and the profit motive, which explains why Starfleet didn’t say “absolutely I want Data to be the doctor because I don’t have to pay him and I can make him work 24/7!”
I was at a conference and this guy came out and gave a pretty stark and convincing argument for exactly how and why that is going to be a reality. I can’t do much of it justice and frankly don’t have time to type a novel but one thing I recall that was pretty compelling-
Imagine a human versus robotic surgeon with advanced AI. Now imagine they both run into the same problem and it’s urgent they take action. What would you rather have, the human that pauses while considering all of the options and risks, perhaps confronted with something they have no experience with or a web enabled AI surgeon robot that can search the web at light speed looking for answers and also keep up with all the latest advancements without going to conferences or classes or taking hours on end to do it?
Speaking of remote- I watched a video of a robotic surgeon stitch the skin back onto a grape, inside of a bottle! All done remotely. Check out the DaVinci system from Intuitive Surgical sometime.
The biggest sellers are the medium and deluxe models of low priced cars. People want a lot of features, they don’t want to pay a lot for them, if they did Cadillac and Lexus would outsell Chevy and Toyota.
It has increased demand for trucking but also depressed profits because now so many trucks are running empty one way. If we don’t make as many things here there is not enough shippig to balance deliveries.
We already have a large segment of our population that has no meaningful employment, leaving lots of time for rioting, looting, living rough on city streets or in vehicles. Vast numbers of college students are being prepared for none-existent occupations and end up in menial jobs. TV repair shops are as common as blacksmiths and wood boat builders. Colleges, schools, business conferences are becoming virtual. No campuses or teachers needed. Vast numbers of lawyers just sue each other for busywork. Looking in the Yellow Pages of my phone book, I am amazed at page after page of hairdressers and beauty shops. People will invent something to do.
For diagnosing, I think there’s no question, although look at cases where some advanced specialist looks at the litany of data accumulated and considers an oddball, extremely old, or otherwise overlooked disease. I’m sure that Data would consider those options, but would the probability percentages go high enough for consideration?
You know, I forgot about the doctor that did that…moron. It was actually one of the books (no I’ve been trying to remember for 2 days now which one it was, and I just can’t remember) where Data himself noted that he felt more comfortable assisting Dr. Crusher with a surgery than he did doing it himself due to the complexities of the human body and the differences from one body to the next.
Again, no arguments from me here. And the new Picard series opens up an even more unfavorable view of the Federation as a whole. The Utopian society that future Earth is supposed to be doesn’t hold up to a critical view. I still don’t see robo doctor’s taking away all of the human healthcare jobs. Some will be lost, but clinical staff will not be on the chopping block for a very long time, if ever.
I wish I would have been there to hear it, actually (despite my thoughts on why I don’t see it happening, at least not for an extremely long time).
Here’s the thing, though, a surgeon while he’s considering his options doesn’t stop performing a surgery and leave the patient on the table. As much as I am for robotics and AI usage, I’m going to trust the surgeon who’s performed this surgery thousands of times to make the correct decision.
I have watched the DaVinci system, it is truly fantastic to watch. We do use robotic assist in our ORs here (I don’t know if our hospital uses DaVinci or another system) already.
Right…people are protesting simply because they’re unemployed, not because they either believe in what it being protested or because they are there to support the protesters
Assuming you actually get someone with that level of experience. For everyone, there is a long path to get there…and you might be one of the much earlier learning patients. Reason they call them practicing
But even so, the unexpected happens, then what? Not saying they abandon you but in some circumstances, seconds count. Humans make mistakes as well. Computerized brains are not subject to distractions, aren’t preoccupied with an argument with a spouse the prior night, kid troubles, etc.
My cousin is an orthopedic surgeon. It wasn’t until he was in his 40’s that he was board certified and could practice without supervision. After medical school and then 2 years residency and then 4 years general surgical residency and then orthopedic residency. By the time he was certified he performed thousands of surgeries.
In my line of work, been doing it 40+ years and still encounter situations I never saw before. I bet if you ask your cousin, happens to him too. That’s life.
You will…it takes years of schooling and residency before you’re allowed to perform surgery by yourself. I had my appendix out in my mid-20s, the surgeon performing my surgery was a well experienced veteran surgeon in his 50s who said he’s probably taken out more than 20,000 appendixes. I do sign consent allowing residents to be involved in my cases every time I’ve been hospitalized, including my surgery earlier this year. In all cases, the supervising surgeon is there (actually due to the complexity of the surgery earlier this year, if there were residents in the OR, they were only observing).
And I’m sure they do, but given the vast amount of experience they have, they know how to work with and handle new situations (as I’m sure you do as well)
I think you’re underestimating how fast machines are. When you play a computer in chess, it’s running through thousands of moves in a few seconds. And that’s an ordinary desktop PC. If the android surgeon did stop to do rapid research on the problem he was facing, a human would probably not even notice the pause.
I’m not saying that this is going to happen tomorrow, but the one thing that Star Trek got wrong with its androids (and later holograms) is that they were all relegated to operating as though they were just really smart humans. The Doctor on Voyager was what you say Data couldn’t be. He was a world-class (er… Galaxy class?) surgeon, GP, medical researcher, etc that could move faster and more precisely than any human, and still had room to sing opera and teach a Borg how to be human.
And yet it wasn’t until almost the end of the series that he was fully acknowledged to be an individual, sapient life form. If The Doctor or Data existed in real life, today, and we could make more of them, then no one going up against them for any job would get it. They don’t need food, they don’t need or want money, they can work 24/7 if necessary, they’re better, faster, stronger, and more capable than any human - - to the business owner, there’s no downside.
Look at it another way in another industry. The first trucking company that buys self-driving trucks is going to be able to slash its prices because it won’t be paying wages, or benefits, and its trucks can run, legally, 24/7/365. So even if the other trucking companies are all wonderfully benevolent and want to keep their human drivers, they won’t be able to. They either become competitive or they go out of business and the first guy gets their accounts.
It’s gonna work the same with any industry that ends up with an AI system capable of executing jobs.
I dunno, but are we done with this diversion yet? First what makes you think the trucking companies would be run by humans and not robots? Why stop at the drivers? Second, I would be a little careful predicting the future based on Hollywood story tellers. If you do pick Hollywood as the predictor of the future, then there are other stories that might prove more accurate.
I don’t routinely, but it’s true they would calculate quickly enough that a pause likely wouldn’t be notable.
Intrepid
I actually found the Voyage EMHR storyline to be better than Data’s actually in the fight for sentience, although Voyager’s Mark I EMH was a massive exception as all of the other EMH Mk 1’s were relegated away from medicine and towards mining and plasma conduit cleaning since they were flawed programs. Another problem with your argument pertaining to the Doctor, he didn’t need food, but he still wanted to explore and expand his program in areas beyond medicine. And in agreeing with his sentience, the crew never reverted his program to base parameters when they ran into problems when he would tamper with his program, or when there was alien influence on his program.
(and to try and vaguely steer this rabbit hole back to cars, I loved Tom Paris always tinkering with classic automobiles in the holodeck in his spare time) (but feel free to DM me, I’m happy to continue the non-car related portion of the discussion ).
Mea Culpa
At this point in time, I don’t think anybody is ready to completely turn an entire company or industry over to AI with 0 human oversight. IF that ever becomes a reality, that is an extremely long way off in the future, long enough that I don’t see it happening in my lifetime (and I’m probably one of the youngest regulars on here).
Why would the owner sell his trucking company to a robot? And why would the robot buy it?
The owner will buy the robots and then fire all the workers.
Indeed. They’ll probably be the first to go, but the rest (accountants, receptionists, etc) won’t be terribly far behind. Mechanics will probably hold on the longest, only being replaced once robots with sufficient dexterity to reach things in an engine bay get built.
In general I agree. I only got into it over Data with Pyrolord because I’m a dork and can talk Star Trek for hours. As I said somewhere above, I think Star Trek got it wrong, because they’ve got this sentient/sapient android and, later, a whole bunch of sentient/sapient holograms, all of whom run circles around humans in nearly every way, and they haven’t taken over everything leaving the humans at best with nothing to do and at worst killed off because they’re in the way? Hogwash.
I seem to recall a Robert Heinlein story regarding a future in which pretty much everyone received a government check in lieu of actually working as there were very few actual jobs to be had. It may or may not have been The Door into Summer, which told of a future in which one industrial business included a manufacturing side in which widgets were made and sent on a conveyer belt to the recycling side in which the freshly made widgets were destroyed and recycled. The point being, this is a common fear, that over-automation will make it possible for many industries to do away with human employees.
I am laughing at the idea of a benevolent trucking company. I was talking through the fence with the terminal manager of a large national LTL carrier during a national teamster strike. He told me that “You road drivers are a big drain on the company. You are our biggest expense.”
I told him, if we were not your biggest expense on a nationwide trucking company, you would be doing something wrong. If we don’t come to work, you don’t make a cent. If you don’t come to work, nobody notices.
It looks like he may be finally getting his wish. I wikk not be alive to see it but it will interesting to see how future fleets develop. Will all the tractors have cabs with controls for local drivers or will they develop road only fleets with no cabs at all.
Data wasn’t allowed to be a doctor not due to lack of ability but due to Federation biases. He could spend an hour learning and be a better doctor than any human. He’d be more accurate, miss less, never get tired, never slip, never do something stupid like burning his alma mater’s initials on a patient’s kidney. But Starfleet insists that doctors must spend years in medical school. Remember, this is the organization that tried to claim Data was a slave and could be killed for cybernetic research. And after Data won recognition as a sentient life form, that same organization apparently forgot that legal precedent and tried to kidnap his daughter because “the machine” shouldn’t have the raising of her.
