The problem with not changing the transmission fluid is that you don’t know if your transmission will make it to 200k miles if you neglect it. Sure, a particular transmission might be a lemon, and might fail at 95k miles, even with frequent fluid and filter changes, but that would be an outlier, not the norm.
Also, keeping the fluid changed is only one part of prolonging the transmission’s life. The other–more important–part is to drive gently and allow the car to accelerate gradually so the transmission can shift through all the gears in sequence. Don’t floor the accelerator each time the light turns green, that quickly wears out your transmission! And of course, don’t tow with your car if it isn’t specifically designed for that purpose, and equipped with a transmission fluid cooler.