I’m an old geizzer. I can’t possibly remember my probability classes and definitely not Bayes Theorem. I just listed out all the possible combinations for the three cards. Then it was easy to see a certain number of the combinations had a red card showing. And a certain subset of those had what the questions asked, and the other ones didn’t. It’s just a questions of whether the set of red card ups that had what the question asked, was that greater than the set of red card ups that didn’t? Does that sound correct?