Puzzler of 02/18/2012: use Bayes' theorem: P(A|B) = P(B|A) * P(A) / P(B)

Another quick way to see the solution: no matter which color turns up, the con man will bet you that the unseen side of the card is the same color. The only way you would win is if you had picked the red/green card, and you have only a 1 in 3 chance of having done that. So his odds are twice as good as yours.