The truck is at 94K miles, and I’m trying to sell it. Judging how to deal with the sale with that problem hanging around is troublesome. Personally, I’m a big fan of data collection. There is none in this case. Maybe the gates.com mentioned above may offer a clue.
However, my contention is that the auto/truck dealers are depending upon fear to sell a replacement to some degree. They reveal no data. Certainly the recommendation of 90K is helpful, but they must have some idea how the probability of failure increase above that. I would think the mfger would protect himself from an “error” by at least knowing a satisfactory upper bound, so he didn’t have vehicles failing left and right.
This is all a matter of fairly simple statistical analysis. I’m sure they have done it, but the consumer doesn’t have any knowledge of it. It would probably take some independent agency to collect sufficient data. Anyone want a new career and job opportunity? 